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Yesterday data on GDP growth was worse than expected. On the whole, the GDP grew 0.1% vs. forecast for 0.2% and 0.3% in the second quarter. In France it declined 0.1% vs. expectations for a growth 0.1%; in Germany it was in line with the forecast, 0.3%, in Italy it was -0.1% vs. -0.2%; in Portugal it rose 0.2% vs. forecast for -0.5%. Greece GDP increased by 5.12% vs. 9.66% in the second quarter. Even in Cyprus improvement was registered; it dropped 0.8% vs. -1.8% in the second quarter. The first reaction was decline of the euro, however, when the negative data on US Trade Balance was issued (-$41.8 billion vs. -38.7 billion in August), the euro reversed.
In the United Kingdom data on Retail Sales in October was disastrous; -0.7% vs. forecast for 0.0% and growth for 0.6% in September. However, when the US session was opened the British pound was bought. We do not consider that the difference in $3.1 billion could provide such a strong effect on the investors. The fact is that yesterday the US Treasury arranged settlement of 3-, 6-month and 4- and 5-week notes totaling $99 billion and the US dollar was restrained from strengthening in order to make the payments using more cheaper rate. During her speech to the US Senate, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen left open the possibility that the central bank could reduce the interest rate it pays on bank reserves as a way of aiding the economy. Thus, she only said the economic indicators may influence the Fed’s decision on the bond purchase program. She dropped a hint about the fact that by December such indicators might not exist.
Today at 13:00 UTC+4 Trade Balance in Italy in September is published, forecast 1.63 billion vs. 0.96 billion in August. Consumer Price Index in October is expected to be flat, 0.7%, Core CPI is expected with a slight decrease, 0.8% against 1.0%.
At 18:15 UTC+4 Capacity Utilization in the US in October is revealed, it is forecast to be flat, 78.3%. Volume of the Industrial Production is expected to be lower, 0.1% vs. 0.6% in September.
There is no news for the United Kingdom today.
Thus, we expect the consolidation of the euro and the pound with downward pressure, as there is no necessity to keep the US dollar from strengthening at the moment.
USD/JPY.
Our fears pertaining to close of the longs by the investors amid Yellen’s speech in the US Senate were in vain. S&P500 grew 0.51%, the yen climbed 73 points. Today Nikkei 225 by 7:00 UTC+4 has added 1.52%.
A new estimate of the published yesterday data on Japan’s GDP in the third quarter in the Japanese mass media should be mentioned. As we have already said the structure of the GDP structure worried the investors, then main accent is done on the wage growth (0.5% a year), increase of the employment rate and bright perspectives for the fourth quarter and the whole 2014 (the GDP growth in the fourth quarter is expected to be 3.3%).
Relevant data on Japan and the US is published on Wednesday. In Japan it is trade balance and PMI, Retail sales and Real estate sales in the US.
Up to November 20 we expect preservation of bullish outlook and the growth of the price to the areas 100.45/60 and 100.85/95.
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