29.06.201810:48 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Global macro overview for 29/06/2018

The US Dollar has been the best perfomer on Forex in Q2. Indeed, it gained against other major currencies from 2.5% (CAD) up to 7.0% (SEK). EUR/USD has dropped over 5.5% and USD/JPY increased by 4.0%. The last three months will, however, go down in history as a period in which turbulence has returned to emerging markets.

The leading themes of the quotations include: growing fear of trade wars and higher US debt yields, that are attracting previously pushed out capital as a magnet and increasing interest attractiveness of the Dollar. The hardship over Eurozone economic strength has been painfully verified by a long (and ongoing) series of disappointing readings, the ECB has postponed the first rate hike for at least a quarter, and the tensions on the political scene of Italy, Spain and even Germany have appeared.

However, in the Dollar valuation, there is a lot of positive information, in Euro - quite the opposite. The Dollar has largely exhausted its appreciation potential resulting from undervaluation and extreme positioning. In the second half, it will not be so easy to extend the rally. The key issue is to determine if and when a market environment will emerge that will facilitate the realization of expectations. For the upcoming sessions, the EUR/USD should consolidate over spring lows around 1.1510. Over time, traders should expect improvement in sentiment towards the Euro and exchange rate hikes towards 1.20, which might be the target at the end of the year. In the short term, more space to recover from the last weakness against the Dollar has a Pound. GBP/USD retraced the typical range after making the double top formation and should enter the phase of recovering from weaknesses. This will be favored by the increase in the probability of the August rate hike and the calm of the political mood in a calmer holiday season.

In conclusion, considering the combination of structural, monetary, fiscal and macroeconomic factors, the traders should expect to maintain higher yields on US government bonds. The interest rate differentials between the major currencies are favorable for USD, thus they should be maintained.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the daily time frame. The uptrend is developing, but the growing bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator is suggesting the correction is coming. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 94.46 and 94.18. In a case of a down move extension, the next technical support is seen at the level of 92.21. Moreover, please notice the possibility of a Double Top technical pattern at the level of 95.53, which supports the short-term bearish scenario.