06.08.201818:14 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Global macro overview for 06/08/2018

The US labor market report is close to expectations. The unemployment rate in July fell to 3.9% (as expected), the hourly wage increased by 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y, although June data was revised down from 0.2% up to 0.1%. Employment increased by 157,000, which is a disappointment compared to 193,000 expected in the forecast, but the June reading was raised from 213,000 at 248,000, which balances the weaker figure for July.

In the other news, the PMI index for the services sector was in July this year at 56.0, which is a reading of 0.2 pp worse than expected and by 0.5 pp worse than the June result, when the indicator was at 56.5. The negative effect of this publication is also increased by the result of the collective PMI index, which despite the forecasts assuming maintaining its value at 55.9, slipped in July to 55.7. At the beginning of the third quarter, the growth rate of economic activity was only slightly slower than in June. Strong domestic demand contributed to further improvement in the level of orders and a significant increase in wages in July. However, the expectations of enterprises in the entire service economy fell to the lowest level in six months. The respondents pointed to concerns about the increase in costs and friction in trade, as well as difficulties in maintaining the pace of development of new enterprises in the second quarter of 2018.

Overall the data is solid and supports the Fed's arguments for next hikes in September and December, but in general, the report does not surprise anyone.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame after the PMI Services and NFP-Payrolls data were published. The market has fallen below the technical support at the level of 1.1574 towards the next support at 1.1540. The zone between the levels of 1.1540 - 1.1507 is the key technical support zone and if this one is violated, then the sell-off will accelerate. The neatest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1590 and 1.1611. The momentum is negative and still points to the downside in oversold market conditions.