28.11.201817:38 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for November 28, 2018

Dlouhodobá prognóza

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USD/CAD has been quite impulsive and non-volatile with the bullish gains. The price is holding at around the resistance area of 1.3300-50. Despite some downbeat economic reports from the US, USD managed to sustain the momentum over CAD. The pair could develop a strong counter-move in the future.

Recently US Consumer Confidence report was published with a decrease to 135.7 from the previous figure of 137.9 which was expected to be at 136.2. Today, US Prelim GDP report was published unrevised at 3.5% which was expected to increase to 3.6%, Goods Trade Balance decreased to -77.2B, extending deficit from -76.3B preivously which was expected to be at -76.7B, Prelim GDP Index report was unchanged at 1.7% as expected, and Prelim Wholesale Inventories showed an increase to 0.7% from the previous value of 0.4% which was expected to be at 0.5%. Moreover, New Home Sales decreased to 544k from the previous figure of 597k which was expected to be at 583k and Richmond Manufacturing Index decreased to 14 from the previous figure of 15 which was expected to increase to 16.

On the other hand, CAD has been hurt by mixed economic reports. It is currently struggling to gain consistent momentum. Recently CAD CPI report was published with an increase to 0.3% from the previous value of -0.4% which was expected to be at 0.1%, Core Retail Sales increased to 0.1% from the previous value of -0.4% which failed to meet the expected value of 0.3% and Retail Sales increased to 0.2% from the previous value of -0.1% which was expected to be at 0.1%. GDP, RMPI and IPPI are due in Canada this week. Amid a busy economic calendar, USD/CAD is expected to trade with greater volatility which might also lead to certain impulsive gains on the CAD side if the reports reveal better-than-expected prints.

Meanwhile, USD is expected to gain further momentum ahead of a rate hike atthe policy meeting in December. The market sentiment is now in favor of USD. As a result, USD asserts its strength versus CAD despite positive economic data from Canada.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite impulsive amid the bullish pressure which is expected to lead to further bullish gains after the price breaks above 1.3350 with a daily close. Otherwise, a break below 1.3300 can lead to a bearish counter-move in the coming days. As the price remains above 1.3300 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 1.3200, 1.3300

RESISTANCE: 1.3350, 1.35

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

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