04.12.201817:05 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for December 4, 2018

Dlouhodobá prognóza

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USD/JPY has been quite impressive amid the impulsive bearish pressure today which pushed the price below 113.00 area. Despite mixed economic reports from Japan, JPY managed to gain momentum over USD ahead of high impact events like NFP and Rate Hike in the coming days.

USD started the week with severe weakness against JPY. Thus, USD could lose more strength. FED members recently stated that they would not react to every rise and fall which confused the market sentiment ahead of a rate hike this month which dealt a blow to the US currency. This week US ISM Manufacturing PMI report was published with a slight increase to 59.3 from the previous figure of 57.7 which was expected to decrease to 57.5 and Construction Spending report was published unchanged at -0.1% which was expected to increase to 0.4%. Moreover, FOMC member Williams is due to speak about the upcoming interest rate and monetary policy decisions. Ahead of NFP this week which is expected to have mixed readings, USD is going to trade with an indecisive dynamic ahead of the policy meeting of the FOMC this month.

On the JPY side, recently Capital Spending report was published with a decrease to 4.5% from the previous value of 12.8% which was expected to be at 8.6% and Final Manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 52.2 which was expected to be unchanged at 51.8. Today Japan's Monetary Base report was published with an increase to 6.1% from the previous value of 5.9% which was expected to decrease to 5.7%.

Japan will post an Average Cash Earnings report Friday which is expected to increase to 1.0% from the previous value of 0.8%. Thus, JPY is expected to gain further in the process. On the other hand, NFP reports are expected to reveal mixed data. Until USD comes up with solid economic reports or events in the coming days, JPY is expected to sustain its momentum.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below 113.00 area and dynamic level of 20 EMA which if have a daily close today, further bearish pressure leading the price towards 112.00 area is expected. The market is still quite volatile, and no definite trend pressure can be recognized currently. As the price remains below 114.50 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 110.50, 112.00

RESISTANCE: 113.00, 114.50

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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