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Trading plan 09/20/2017
The overall picture: All attention to the Fed.
On Tuesday, US leader Trump delivered a keynote speech at the United Nations, bringing down threats to North Korea and slightly less to Iran, Venezuela and Syrian leader Assad.
Nevertheless, we do not see new launches of missiles from North Korea or promises of such launches. It seems that the real threat of a full oil and financial blockade in the case of new launches of North Korean missiles began to work. We will see.
Against this backdrop of some geopolitical calm, the US market again reached historical highs (about 2500 on the S & P500) and the dollar seems to be ready to weaken.
Everyone turned their heads in the direction of the Fed.
Today at 19.00 London time, the Fed will issue a statement on monetary policy and publish the Fed's forecast for the state of the economy (issued by the Federal Reserve every six months).
At 19.30 London time, Fed Chairman Yellen will speak.
What do we expect? The bet will not be raised, there is not a single chance. The rate increase of 0.25% is possible in December.
The Fed will discuss a plan to reduce the balance of assets of the Fed. That is a program of gradually pulling out excess liquidity from the markets, pumped during the three QE programs. The Fed will do this extremely slow and cautiously, trying not to damage the growth of the economy. Growth, as expected, the Fed will describe how slow and moderate.
Thus, the Fed's statements are expecting very "pigeons" and this is more likely to lead to a new wave of decline in the US dollar.
EUR/USD
In the morning, the Euro broke through the Tuesday's high of 1.2005 and keeps close to the high of the current week.
We keep the purchase from 1.2005 stop-loss 1.1960.
However, there is a fallback option: In case of a sharp downward turn, we sell from 1.1910 with a stop at 1.1955 and target of 1.1780.
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