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If the market initially believed in saving a trade, now hopes are scattered. The absence of a trade agreement between the United States and China, as well as the option of a protracted technological war between the two largest economies, form a bearish mood. As the leading strategists of the world, including Citigroup, note, the worst outcome of the trade dispute is not yet priced in, so you should take a closer look at buying the US dollar against Asian currencies.
The Chinese authorities advised traders not to play against the yuan, since losses, in their opinion, would be inevitable. The Central Bank of the Celestial Empire uses a larger arsenal of tools available to it, and the national currency may rise significantly in the short term. At the same time, in May, the yuan fell by 2.6% against the dollar, and the indicator, which assesses the willingness of traders to bet on its further decline against other Asian currencies, peaked in history. Traders are set to sell Chinese currency. On Monday, the dollar / yuan pair was trading at $ 6.9094.
It is worth noting that the American currency, like the medal, has two sides. The first is a protective one, peculiar to it as a world reserve currency. A dollar is bought when risks increase in other countries or the world. The second is national. They buy it when they believe in the American economy, namely that it is stronger than others. A trade war forces market participants to doubt America's steadfastness. According to published data, US GDP also suffers losses due to trade wars. Given the signs of a slowdown, market expectations are increasing with respect to the Fed rate cut this year. In this regard, the dollar behaves cyclically - repeats the movement of shares.
On Monday, the dollar / yen pair slightly increased in price due to the growth of the stock market. It looks like Donald Trump is in high spirits during his visit to Tokyo. This eases concerns about a bilateral trade deal and puts pressure on the yen. According to Trump, the United States has made "significant progress" in negotiations with Japan, but the deal can take place only after the July elections in the Land of the Rising Sun.
Despite attempts at recovery, the dollar / yen pair is unlikely to grow. The market is not showing any appetite for risk.
As it approaches $ 110, the dollar, in conjunction with the yen, faces a key level of resistance. Recovery by the end of May above the upper levels of $ 109 will indicate that the pair has found support, and a breakthrough below will pave the way for the development of the downward trend in June.
As for the yen as a whole, in case of erroneous market behavior regarding long-term US Treasury securities, cross-pairs with the Japanese currency can seriously change direction. It is worth observing whether the new minima of the American profitability will retain the status of the main matching indicator.
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