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EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a sharp and unexpected turn in favor of the US dollar, which was preceded by the formation of four bearish divergences. In the end, the pair began the process of falling and executed the consolidation under the retracement level of 38.2% (1.1237). Thus, the fall of quotations on June 17 may be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 23.6% (1.1187). It should be noted that today, there is a bullish divergence in the MACD indicator, which can allow the pair to make a turn in favor of the European currency and resume the growth process. Traders do not expect any news today. However, this Wednesday, the Fed will hold a meeting at which the rate is likely to be hardly lowered, but there may be hints on whether Jerome Powell and the company are ready to take such a step in 2019. Talk about a possible Fed rate cut has been actively conducted in the last few weeks when America "distinguished" by extremely weak economic reports and the escalation of the trade conflict with China. It is the "dovish" position of the Fed at the next meetings that could become a serious obstacle for bears, but at the same time, nothing prevents the US dollar from continuing to grow.
The Fibo grid is built on extremums from March 20, 2019, and May 23, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation below the Fibo level of 38.2%. Thus, I recommend selling today the euro with the target of 1.1187, a protective order above the Fibo level of 38.2%. I recommend buying the EUR/USD pair after the end of quotes from the level of 23.6% for the purpose of a correction level of 1.1237 and a stop-loss order for 1.1187.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and resumed the process of falling of quotations in the direction of the correctional level of 100.0% (1.2437) after the closing under the level of 76.4% (1.2661). Traders have already digested information about the results of the first round of elections of the head of the Conservative Party, and there is no new information on elections and Brexit. In the coming weeks, the markets are unlikely to receive at least some information regarding Brexit, as it is almost officially suspended until the moment when a new Prime Minister is elected. Indeed, new negotiations with the European Union will be possible only with the new British Prime Minister, if there will be any. In fact, it is even difficult to imagine now what the new Prime Minister can do with Brexit? The problem of Great Britain is more in the lack of unity in Parliament and in the government as a whole, and not in the absence of any actions of its top. Theresa May led Brexit quite adequately, but her work was not approved by the Parliament, while she herself could not offer alternative Brexit options that would suit her. In general, the pound remains prone to fall, as there is no progress in the main topic for this currency.
The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.
GBP/USD – 1H.
As seen on the hourly chart, the pair pound/dollar resumed the process of falling and performed a consolidation under the corrective level of 76.4% (1.2606) on the new Fibo grid. Thus, the fall of quotations can be continued today in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% (1.2558). The rebound of the pair from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the English currency and some growth of quotations. On Monday, June 17, no news is expected, therefore, trading may not be too active.
The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of May 31, 2019, and June 7, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair performed a consolidation under the correction level of 76.4%. I recommend selling the pair with the target at 12558, with the stop-loss order above the level of 1.2606. I recommend buying the pair at the rebound of quotes from the Fibo level of 100.0% (hourly chart) with a target of 1.2606 and a protective order under the level of 1.2558.
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