02.07.201909:51 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Review of EUR / USD and GBP / USD pairs on 07/02/2019: Statistical surprises

Honestly, it would have been better if the European statistics did not come out yesterday because it turned out to be completely different from what it was originally intended. Also, the American statistics presented a rather curious surprise, which very much pleased investors, who had been waiting for at least some reason for correction but first things first.

In the first attempt to restore justice, the dollar began to undertake immediately as it became known that the growth rate of consumer lending in Europe slowed down from 3.4% to 3.3%. After all, this is clearly not favored by the growth of consumer activity, particularly in retail sales, which means that the potential for inflation growth clearly looks a little ghostly. At the same time, the final data on the business activity index in the manufacturing sector came out, which refused to grow from 47.7 to 47.8 and fell to 47.6. Investors did not have time to come to their senses when they began to receive data from the UK, which also greatly disappointed. In particular, the business activity index in the manufacturing sector fell from 49.4 to 48.0, and yes, everyone expected a decline but not so strong. It was only 49.2 and even scared more data on the credit market since the volume of consumer loans amounted to 0.8 billion pounds in May, whereas this figure was 1.0 billion pounds in April. Also, the number of approved mortgage applications was the same with 65,409 in May against 66,045 in the previous month. The only thing that could somehow please investors is the purely ritual reduction of unemployment in Europe from 7.6% to 7.5%.

However, the extraordinary and quite predictable but expected decrease in the level of unemployment in Europe did not allow the dollar to restore the previously lost positions already in the morning. Investors were constrained by expectations on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the United States. Indeed, it was expected to decline in Europe and anxiety only grew given what the final data in the Old World turned out to be. But as soon as the data was published, nothing could stop the rising cost of portraits of dead American presidents. It turned out that the index of US business activity in the manufacturing sector unexpectedly rose to 50.6, which was supposed to fall from 50.5 to 50.1. Although the growth is purely symbolic, it is still an increase, not a decrease. Hence, it turned out to be quite enough to launch the long-awaited correction.

Today, Nationwide data on real estate prices in the UK have already come out, showing a slowdown in their growth rates from 0.6% to 0.5%. Although this in itself indicates the potential for slowing inflation, this indicator does not cover the entire real estate market. Therefore, you should not make far-reaching conclusions. We are still waiting for the index of business activity in the construction sector of the United Kingdom, which can show growth from 48.6 to 49.3. This will allow forgetting such troubles as a slowdown in the growth rate of housing prices. However, in continental Europe, they are waiting for the worst or rather a slowdown in the growth of producer prices from 2.6% to 1.6%, which turns all dreams of rising inflation into ashes. After such, the European Central Bank will seriously have to think about finding some methods to mitigate monetary policy.

In theory, after the rapid growth of the dollar, it is obvious that the producer prices in Europe will soon be pressing on the single European currency, which can drop to 1.1275. Some rebound is at least needed but we will have to wait a bit with the rebound.

Of course, the growth of the business activity index in the construction sector will support the pound but it will still depend on the dynamics of the single European currency. Hence, it is worth waiting for the decline of the pound to 1.2600.