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EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair made an unexpected return to the correction level of 50.0% (1.1278). Over the past day, the euro fell by about 40 points, as there was another portion of hints from ECB Chairman Mario Draghi that he was ready to take radical measures and lower the key rate in the last months of his reign appeared. At the moment, the rate level is 0.0%. That is, the rate could potentially drop to -0.25% – -0.50%. In addition, there are new rumors that the ECB is also preparing to resume the economic stimulus program. Especially, from my point of view, it will be needed if Brexit will be held in a tough scenario, and the problems with Italy, which in the last year are growing like a snowball, will continue to grow. The return to stimulate the economy may spur inflation in the European Union, which has been sought for several years by Mario Draghi, and will soon be sought by Christine Lagarde. The question is with which monetary policy will Lagarde assume her position and how will she get out of negative rates. Either way, the euro may resume falling at any second, as the factors for the fall of this currency is much more than for growth.
The Fibo grid is built on extremums from March 20, 2019, and May 23, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair returned to the correction level of 50.2% (1.1278). I recommend selling the pair with the target of 1.1238, with the stop-loss order above the level of 1.1278, if the rebound from the level of 50.0% is executed. I recommend buying the pair with the target at 1.1318 and with a stop-loss level of 1.1278, if the closing is performed above the correction level of 50.0%.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair, after the formation of a bullish divergence at the MACD indicator, continues the growth process in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% (1.2661). However, yesterday, a bearish divergence was formed in the CCI indicator, which allows us to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and on the resumption of the fall first to the level of 100.0% (1.2437), and then in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.2180). Meanwhile, the pound is growing, which has long been gone. First, Britain pleased traders with a good report on retail sales yesterday, and the day before – on inflation, which remains at the level of 2.0%, at a level that the ECB can only dream of. Secondly, Michel Barnier, the main coordinator in the negotiations on Brexit from the European Union, said that the EU authorities are not too afraid of the hard option, although, of course, would like to avoid it. Thirdly, it has already become known that the British Parliament has made a "knight's move" and adopted an amendment that does not allow the country to leave the European Union without agreements, that is, a tough option. Thus, the probability of Brexit without a deal decreased yesterday, which caused the purchase of the English currency. However, many of the UK's problems remain in place, and the main one is complete political disunity. It is not known whether traders will pay attention to this factor in the coming days, but the further strengthening of the pound can be expected not earlier than the closing of quotations above the peak of bearish divergence.
The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.
GBP/USD – 1H.
As seen the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair has already performed a reversal in favor of the US currency, after the formation of a bearish divergence at the CCI indicator, and began the process of falling in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% (1.2506). The rebound of quotations on July 19 from this level of Fibo will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the pound and the resumption of growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.2661). Closing the pair below the level of 100.0% will increase the chances of continuing to fall in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% (1.2430).
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of June 18, 2019, and June 25, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair formed a bearish divergence. Thus, I recommend buying the pair today with the target of 1.2571, with the stop-loss level at 1.2506, if the rebound from the level of 100.0% is executed. I recommend selling the pair with the targets at 1.2506 and 1.2430, as there is a bearish divergence, and with the stop-loss level above its peak (hour chart).
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