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EUR / USD
On Friday, July 19, trading ended for EUR / USD by 55 bp decline. As you can see, the bulls can not fix their successes. Any increase the next day is replaced by the fall of the euro-dollar pair. Thus, we have two price peaks, which can be interpreted as wave 2 peaks. If the current wave marking is correct, quotations will continue to decline in any case within wave 3 with targets located under the 12th figure. As for the news background, there will be plenty of information that may affect the trading strategies of individual traders this week. For the euro, the main event of the week is certainly the ECB meeting. Rumors that the ECB is preparing to lower the key rate and restart the quantitative incentive program have been discussed quite often in recent weeks. Mario Draghi should give the market an answer to this question. If Draghi speaks openly about the weakness of the economy, heightened risks, weak inflation, the threat of a trade war with the United States and hints at easing monetary policy, this will perfectly fit into the current wave counting and will almost certainly cause euro sales.
Purchase goals:
1.1412 - 0.0% Fibonacci
Sales targets:
1.1106 - 100.0% Fibonacci
1.1025 - 127.2% Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The euro-dollar pair retains hope for the upward trend, but the current wave counting gives more chances to build a new downward trend. A breakthrough of the minimum of estimated wave 1 will indicate that the instrument is ready to build a descending wave. In this case, I recommend selling a pair with targets located near the marks 1,1106 and 1,1025.
GBP / USD
The pair GBP / USD fell on July 19 by 50 basis points. At the moment, the current wave counting involves the construction of a new upward trend, at least a correction. However, what will be its strength, given the news background, which is not in favor of the pound, is difficult to make assumptions. Markets are not yet ready to buy a pound. Perhaps, the situation tomorrow will change a little. The results of the election of the Prime Minister of Great Britain will be known on July 23, and perhaps the markets will perk up a bit and allow the pound to roll back a little from the lows. However, in the longer term more than 1 day, everything remains worse for the pound. If Johnson wins the election, two ministers have already promised to resign, Philip Hammond and David Gock. Many conservatives oppose Brexit without agreements with the European Union, realizing the whole destructive effect it will have on the economy. And what awaits Brexit is still very difficult to say. The pound against such uncertainties is only ready to fall.
Sales targets:
1.2334 - 200.0% Fibonacci
1.2194 - 261.8% Fibonacci
Purchase goals:
1.2783 - 0.0% Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The wave pattern of the pound / dollar instrument assumes the completion of the construction of the downward wave e. Thus, I recommend small purchases of a pair with targets located around 28 figures and with an order restricting losses under the minimum of wave e. I recommend to return to sales no earlier successful attempt to break through the minimum of wave e.
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