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The pound-dollar pair demonstrated correctional growth today after updating its annual low and reaching two-year price troughs. Bears of GBP/USD could not enter the 20th figure, after which the bulls seized the initiative and nearly 100 points passed in a day. This dynamic is mainly due to technical factors - an overabundance of short positions in the British currency makes itself felt.
In addition, the market "remembered" that the prime minister of Britain, with all his desire, cannot single out the country from the EU - this requires the approval of the Parliament. Ironically, the House of Commons, after several years of confrontation with the government of Theresa May and Brussels, can become an unexpected ally of the Europeans, stopping the implementation mechanism of the chaotic Brexit. Deputies have already taken preventive measures by adopting an amendment to the law on self-government in Northern Ireland. This provision does not allow the prime minister to stop the Parliament's work, which can quickly block withdrawal from the EU without an agreement. In turn, Johnson can decide on early Parliamentary elections, hoping to get the majority under control. There are several other scenarios, one of which is the announcement of a vote of no confidence in the newly minted premier. In any case, Johnson faces a difficult struggle within the walls of the British Parliament, whose members, as we recall, did not support the option of a "hard" Brexit during a signal vote at the beginning of this year.
This disposition made it possible for the pound to move away from the level of two-year lows. On the other hand, the British currency continues to be under strong background pressure, as Brexit prospects remain dim - even if Parliament does not allow Johnson to withdraw the country from the Alliance without an agreement on October 31. London and Brussels are still at different poles on many issues - which includes the fate of the Irish border. Therefore, this political rebus will remain unresolved in any case - until one of the parties makes substantial concessions.
Given the current situation, any growth in the British currency should be treated with caution. Here it is worth recalling that the so-called "super-Thursday" is expected tomorrow, when several important events take place within a day: the Bank of England meeting, the release of the quarterly report on inflation and the publication of a summary of monetary policy. The news marathon is completed by Mark Carney, who will hold an extended press conference. Such a "news jackpot" is relatively rare, so traders are unlikely to ignore it, despite the undeniable priority of the Brexit issue.
However, these issues can not be separated from each other. Last year, the head of the Bank of England warned of the extremely negative consequences of a hard Brexit. In particular, he said that if Britain withdraws from the EU without a deal, then the country will have to rely on the conditions of the WTO. The head of the English regulator even admitted the likelihood that the monetary policy in this case would be revised in the direction of easing. Since then, Carney's rhetoric has not undergone any fundamental changes. He does not tire of repeating that the prospects for monetary policy depend primarily on the prospects for the negotiation process. Moreover, the transfer of Brexit in this context will also not be an acceptable solution, since in this case the period of uncertainty will only be extended. In other words, the English regulator unequivocally associated a further increase in the interest rate with a soft Brexit, and Mark Carney consistently advocated this causal relationship.
Given the recent events, the head of the Bank of England is unlikely to toughen his rhetoric - on the contrary, he can describe in more detail the prospects for the chaotic scenario. That is why tomorrow's inflation report and monetary policy summary will play a secondary role, and the focus of GBP/USD traders will be on Carney's rhetoric. Also, do not forget that the English regulator closely monitors the dynamics of the global trade war. Let me remind you that the 12th round of talks between Beijing and Washington was completed ahead of schedule today. The parties noted "some progress" and agreed to meet again in September. The market clearly expected more from this meeting, so anti-risk sentiments returned to the market. This factor can also affect the mood of the members of the English regulator, reinforcing their "dovish" attitude.
Thus, the "super-Thursday" is unlikely to help the British currency in restoring its position. Against the background of the Brexit lull, the pound will follow the US currency in anticipation of the next news drivers. Therefore, the trading strategy for the GBP/USD pair remains unchanged - short positions for any more or less large-scale correctional growth.
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