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Over the past trading day, the pound / dollar currency pair sold again speculators with a high volatility of 150 points, having as a result, an indecently wide amplitude of fluctuation. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the quote returned to the growth phase, where it tried to break the range of 1.2350, which formed a cross to 1.2382. Nevertheless, at the end of the day, it still returned below the key value. In simple words, all the fluctuations of the past day were made by two four-hour candles (8:00 and 12:00), but we will analyze the consequences and causal later.
As discussed in a previous review, news feed monitoring tactics in the work of speculators turned out to be the best trading system. This approach has been actively used by traders since the beginning of the month, and we have repeatedly talked about this. Pound sterling in the current time spans is extremely strongly tied to information hysteria, turning a blind eye to macroeconomic statistics and the general theory of technical analysis. What traders do is analyze the FOMO of the market and compare it with the current fluctuation. Considering the trading chart in general terms (the daily period), there is a certain weariness caused by the fact that the past fluctuation managed to overcome the maximum of the previous correction (August 27 - 1.2307). I think it's still very early to talk about the completion of the global downward trend, but a repetition of the plot of the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017 is possible.
The news background of the past day contained data on industrial production in Britain, where the rate of decline only increased from -0.6% to -0.9%. However, this news also has its own positive notes, as they predicted a deeper decline to -1.1%, but there is nothing good in the UK.
The information background reigned and so, Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II approved the bill banning Brexit without an agreement. In fact, now, Boris does not turn his back on the three-month delay. In turn, the Prime Minister continues to act up and threaten that he will not ask for any postponement from the European Union.
"I will go to the EU summit on October 17, and I will do everything to reach an agreement in the name of national interests ... But this government will not extend Brexit," said Boris Johnson
On the other hand, Brussels is now in full chocolate, having on hand all the Trump cards that the British themselves graciously gave. Barbarossa's plan, which the prime minister planned in the form of instilling fear, indirectly forcing Brussels to make concessions, has staggeringly failed, and now, the EU rules again, which will not make any changes to the agreement. Thus, criticism is already actively coming from the lands of the European Union towards deferment. The first who expressed his unwillingness to delay the Brexit process turned out to be French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, which was already written about yesterday. A new statement appeared, where, in an interview, the Dutch Foreign Minister said that Brexit without a deal is still better than another delay
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on the UK labor market, where, in principle, no drastic changes are expected. The wage level, taking into account premiums and excluding conventionally, stands still, but applications for unemployment benefits are growing, but slightly by 28.0K -> 29.3K. The main incentive for volatility remains in the form of an informational background, but it seems like today the British Parliament is on vacation and thereby criticism, if any, will be from the outside.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see how the quotation focuses beautifully within the range of 1.2350, forming so versatile candles that it becomes directly interesting whether sellers will be able to fully overtake the market. Speculators, in turn, are considering the possibility of entering short positions, but below 1.2300. Long positions are also considered, but when monitoring a news feed.
It is likely to assume a temporary fluctuation within the frames of 1.2300 / 1.2380, with an analysis of the available boundaries, where trading operations will be performed depending on the fixation point. At the same time, the tactics of working with the information flow continues.
Based on the above information, we derive trading recommendations:
- Buy positions are considered in the case of clear price fixing higher than 1.2380, with the prospect of a move to 1.2450-1.2500.
- Selling positions are considered in the case of price fixing lower than 1.2300, with the prospect of a move to 1.2250-1.2150.
Indicator analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in the short-term period signal sales due to an attempt to work out the level. Meanwhile, the intraday and medium term hovered at an earlier impulse jump.
Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(September 10 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)
Current time volatility is 69 points. It is likely to assume that volatility will remain at a high level, at least reaching the daily average.
Key levels
Resistance zones: 1.2350 **; 1.2430; 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) **.
Support areas: 1.2150 **; 1,2000 ***; 1.1700; 1.1475 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** The article is built on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment
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