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The outgoing head of the European Central Bank, said that interest rates will remain at their current or lower level until inflation forecasts show a steady approach to the target level of 2.0%. At the same time, he said this in the second sentence. That is, with these words, the farewell press conference of Mario Draghi began. Given that inflation is not growing, and rather demonstrates the desire to fall into deflation, it is safe to say that the European Central Bank, already under the leadership of Christine Lagarde, will reduce the refinancing rate in the near future. Moreover, even before the end of this year, we can become witnesses to a historic moment when the refinancing rate in Europe becomes negative. However, we did not see the collapse of the single European currency, and thus, investors were largely expecting something like that. After all, it was obvious to everyone that the next step would be to lower the refinancing rate after the European Central Bank lowered the deposit rate from -0.4% to -0.5%. The only question was what Mario Draghi himself would do, or would he lay this responsibility on the fragile female shoulders of Christine Lagarde. However, any answer to this question does not inspire optimism, since if the European Central Bank is forced to reduce all interest rates to a negative level, then things in the Old World are, to put it mildly, very, very bad.
The EUR / USD pair still managed to maintain at least some, but still a recovery process, relative to the main inertial move. Therefore, working out the mirror level of 1.1180 was not in vain and the quotation was partially possible. Nevertheless, it was possible to restore the mood of the sellers, where in a complex, with an information background, letting us down to the area of 1.1092, that is, practically to the next level of 1.1080. In terms of a general review of the trading chart, we have the prerequisites for recovery, but the quote is still high and remains quite strong in terms of emotional and informational background.
It is likely to suggest that with respect to oscillations, we can temporarily pullback, with a subsequent slowdown. At the same time, the analysis of a more significant decline should be analyzed after fixing the price below the level of 1.1080.
Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:
- Long positions are considered in terms of local pullback, in the case of price fixing higher than 1.1115.
- Short positions are advised to be considered after fixing the price below the level of 1.1080.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that there is confirmation of the recovery process in terms of hourly intervals - a signal about sales. Short-term segments [minute periods], in turn, work in the pullback phase - a signal about purchases. Medium term [daily periods], all also reflect an earlier inertia.
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