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Hello!
Last week was rather uncertain. Against some major currencies, the US dollar showed strengthening, while it weakened against others
The Japanese yen was one of the three major currencies against which the US dollar rose at the trading on December 16-20. About what it gives in the future, and talk in today's review of USD/JPY.
Weekly
Although the dollar/yen pair has grown at the last five-day trading, there are big questions about its further ability to move up. And here's why.
First, the highs of the previous trades (109.68) were lower than the previous ones, at 109.70. Secondly, the nondescript bullish body with the closing price within the Ichimoku indicator cloud indicates the bulls' problems on USD/JPY to continue the rate rise. And one more important point. The closing price of the previous week was within the Ichimoku cloud and under the 144 exponential moving average. In my opinion, this is an important point that shows the limitations of the potential growth and the high probability that the bears will have control over the pair in the starting week.
If this assumption is correct and the market chooses a bearish scenario, the targets of the expected decline will be: 109.00 (50 MA), 108.90 (lower cloud boundary) and the Tenkan line at 108.81. In the case of a deeper version of the downward scenario, the dollar/yen will fall to the key support near 108.43, where the further fate of the asset will be decided.
Daily
On the daily chart, consolidation, which is observed in the price zone of 109.74-109.20, leaves more questions than answers. In this case, after the consolidation is completed, there are options for moving in both directions. And yet, since the weekly timeframe is older, and the signals there are stronger, I expect a decline in the USD/JPY rate to the area of 109.09-109.00, where the Tenkan and Kijun lines of the Ichimoku indicator pass, respectively.
The further target of the bears on the pair is the mark of 108.80, where the 55 simple moving average passes. If you consider that a little lower lies the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud and 144 EMA, the area of 108.80-108.65, anyone can consider opening long positions. I am more inclined to a bearish scenario and USD/JPY sales. Let's look at potential entry points for opening sales on a smaller time frame.
H4
There is an uncertain situation. By and large, recently the pair has been trading in a rather narrow price range of 109.18-109.74. It can be assumed that the direction in which the price will leave the designated range will largely depend on its further direction.
Now on trading ideas. As I wrote above, a candlestick signal on the weekly timeframe makes a bearish scenario more likely. But the bulls also didn't slurp their cabbage soup and would surely try to resume raising the course. If this happens and there will be a reversal (on the decline) of the candlestick analysis model in the area of 109.60-109.80, sell with the nearest goals in the area of 109.25-109.00. If bullish signals appear in this area, given that this is a support area, buy with targets in the area of 109.60-109.80.
This is the current trading plan for the USD/JPY currency pair. However, I would like to note that the situation can change at any time, and, accordingly, the technical picture of this currency pair will look different.
In this regard, I would like to emphasize that this week I will return to USD/JPY and, taking into account possible changes, I will correct trading ideas for this instrument.
Good luck and profitable trades!
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