05.03.202011:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading recommendations for GBP/USD pair on March 5

From the point of view of complex analysis, we see a local surge in prices beyond the established flat, and now let's talk about the details. So, a three-day flat with variable boundaries of 1.2740 / 1.2850 was still broken through towards the upper frame. The level of 1.2770, with which it all began, has survived, but this step, as a rebound from the key coordinate, may well play into the hands of further downward development. In this judgment, I am referring to a kind of regrouping of trading forces, where there will no longer be so much pressure with subsequent rapprochement with the area of 1.2770 and the price will still be able to pass it. A similar development was already with an average level of the range 1.2770 // 1.2885 // 1.3000, where we had a systematic interaction at first, but with a sequential puncture, the pressure came to naught and the price calmly passes the coordinates.

Regarding the theory of downward development, the tactics of conducting medium-term transactions remain unchanged, where the external background plays into the benefit of the theory, and we can only wait for further development. Let me remind you that we are now considering a possible course recovery relative to the medium-term upward trend, and for this, we need to go through more than half of this trend, where just the conditional middle is located in the region of the level of 1.2770.

In terms of volatility, we continue to record acceleration, where the dynamics of Tuesday coincided with the dynamics of the environment, having an increase relative to the average daily indicator of 6%.

Details of volatility: Tuesday - 103 points; Wednesday - 115 points; Thursday - 86 points; Friday - 193 points; Monday - 110 points; Tuesday - 102 points; Wednesday - 102 points. The average daily indicator, relative to the dynamics of volatility, is 96 points [see the table of volatility at the end of the article].

Detailing the minute by minute, we see that the round of growth that led to the breakdown of the conditional flat occurred at the moment of the next touch of the level of 1.2770, where the quote consistently reached the height of 1.2871 [10:00-18:15 UTC+00 time on the trading terminal] . The successive fluctuation was in the form of consolidation.

As discussed in the previous review, intraday traders were waiting, and they were waiting for the breakdown of the February 28 low [1.2725] as a starting point in descending positions, which did not happen. At the same time, local buy positions were considered in case of breakdown of the upper border of the 1.2850 flat, where a small profit was received.

Considering the trading chart in general terms [the daily period], we see the first significant correction since touching the level of 1.2770 relative to the period earlier. In fact, this step can lead to the subsequent acceleration of short positions and the breakdown of the control level.

The news background of the past day contained data on the index of business activity in the UK services sector, where they recorded a decrease from 53.9 to 53.2. In the afternoon, they published an ADP report on the level of employment in the United States, where the data came out better than forecast, but in comparison with the previous period, we still record a decrease from 209 thousand to 183 thousand.

The reaction of the market is more like technical fluctuations than the reflection of statistical data on the quote.

In terms of the general information background, we have the pressure that occurred after the actions of the Federal Reserve System. A round of ambiguity and possible actions by other central banks swept the market, and thus, there were rumors that the Bank of England could soon hold an unscheduled meeting, during which the interest rate would be reduced by 0.25%. Naturally, there is no confirmation of this, but the background speaks for itself. In a previous review, we looked at the comments of outgoing Mark Carney, who spoke about the interaction of central banks. Now, we have a statement from his successor, Andrew Bailey, who intends to support British companies amid a raging coronavirus, but at the same time, has managed to interest investors with plans for monetary policy.

Andrew Bailey said that he is in no way to reduce the importance of monetary policy, but all attention is focused on it. I think it is reasonable to expect that we are going to provide some form of supply chain financing in the near future to ensure that the effects of this shock from the virus will not harm many forms of activity.

The new head of the Bank of England added that the interest rate will be reduced, but not lower than 0.1%, which eliminated a lot of doubts and fear among investors.

In fact, such openness of the regulator in some sense locally supported the British currency, but this is all temporary.

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, where a slight increase of 5 thousand is expected: Primary +1 thousand; Repeated +4 thousand

At the same time, today ends the first round of negotiations between England and Brussels regarding trade interactions after Brexit, where interesting comments may appear.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the corrective move is still preserved in the market, where the quote has reached an average level of 1.2885 and has gone slightly above it. In fact, we have fluctuations in the stagnations of the past week, where there is a slight pressure. Regarding the theory of development, top-down tactics are a priority position, but their full implementation requires time.

From the point of view of the emotional mood, we see that the information background, paired with a high speculative mood, gives the market an acceleration, which was written about at the beginning of the article.

By detailing the time segment that we have every minute, we see that night stagnation has been replaced by local leaps, just as Europeans entered the market.

In turn, intraday traders continue to work in local long positions that were open at the time of the breakdown of the 1.2740 / 1.2850 flat. In fact, there is already the most optimal point for profit taking.

Having a general picture of actions, we see that the current move is not constant, and the levels are 1.2910; 1.2945 can play the role of resistance.

Based on the above information, we derive trading recommendations:

- Local buy positions are already from the value of 1.2850, the point of possible fixation is 1.2910; 1.2945.

- Sales positions are considered lower than 1.2850, towards 1.2770. The main positions will come after fixing the price lower than 1.2725.

Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators of technical instruments have changed to the upside relative to minute and hour periods due to the development of correction. At the same time, daily periods remain downward interest.

Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 5 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 42 points, which is still a low value. It is likely to assume that there is still room for further acceleration, and an urgent information background will help us in this.

Key levels

Resistance Zones: 1.2885 *; 1.3000; 1.3170 **; 1.3300 **; 1.3600; 1.3850; 1.4000 ***; 1.4350 **.

Support Areas: 1.2885 *; 1.2770 **; 1.2700 *; 1.2620; 1.2580 *; 1.2500 **; 1.2350 **; 1.2205 (+/- 10p.) *; 1.2150 **; 1,2000 ***; 1.1700; 1.1475 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

*** Psychological level

**** The article is built on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment