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In April, optimists in the face of buyers of US stocks feel great, but pessimists in the face of gold fans - even better! The precious metal has grown by 9% since the beginning of the month and reached its highest level since 2012 on the background of the coronavirus, the global recession and some weakening of the US dollar. Not the least role in the rise of XAU/USD was played by the real rates of the US debt market.
The Achilles heel of gold is its inability to generate interest income. Owners of shares receive dividends, bonds-coupons, precious metals have to rely solely on the increase in exchange value. In times of recessions, everything changes dramatically: the real yield on debt slips into the red zone, equity securities move into the territory of the "bear" market, and then everyone remembers about gold. After the previous global financial crisis, it managed to reach a historical high of more than $1,900 per ounce. Goldman Sachs claimed in March that the bulls' goal of $1,800 is on the agenda. Then this figure seemed sky-high, now it is close to it.
Dynamics of gold and real yield of US Treasury bonds
It is not surprising that the precious metal and US stock indices are moving in the same direction. They have the same growth drivers - fiscal and monetary incentives. The Fed has taken unprecedented measures, pumping the financial system with cheap liquidity, while the frantic growth of the balance sheets of the world's central banks is the way to weaken their issued currencies. At the same time, gold will grow.
Along with the weakness of the main world monetary units and low, often negative, real bond rates on the side of the "bulls" for XAU/USD, the global recession, uncertainty around the coronavirus and interruptions in the supply of physical assets from Europe to the United States, which widens spreads in futures and spot market prices.
Dynamics of gold in the futures and spot markets
According to the IMF, the world economy in 2020 will be marked by the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Coronavirus will cost it $2.7 trillion and -3% of GDP. By comparison, global gross domestic product declined by a modest 0.1% in the previous recession.
Despite the optimistic long-term outlook on the short-term investment horizon, gold may face a correction due to the excessive enthusiasm of the S&P 500 bulls for the idea of restoring the upward trend. Buyers of stocks are in a hurry to buy fairly cheap securities and do not pay attention to the increase in deaths from coronavirus in the United States, to the terrible corporate reporting, to the fact that the V-shaped recovery of the American economy is not worth dreaming about. A correction in the stock index will return interest to the US dollar and cut the wings of XAU/USD buyers.
Technically, the potential of the upward trend is not disclosed. The target for 161.8% on the AB=CD pattern is located near the $1,850 per ounce mark. At the same time, a fall in gold below the support levels of $1,700 and $1,665 will increase the risks of a correction. On the contrary, rebounding from these levels will allow traders to buy precious metals.
Gold, the daily chart
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