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EUR/USD 1H
Quotes of the euro/dollar pair, as we expected the day before, fell to an ascending long-term trend line drawn at the lows of March 23 and April 24 on the hourly timeframe. The pair did not reach the trend line by just a few points, but this is normal. A reversal occurred when working out the support area 1.0762 - 1.0774. Thus, from a technical point of view, the euro should definitely continue to grow now. In addition, a downward trend line was built and overcome yesterday. This overcoming gives us another signal to change the trend to an upward one. In addition, traders often trade against the main trend on Friday. If the EUR/USD pair has recently fallen, then, most likely, there will be a correctional increase tomorrow. Therefore, we have several factors for the euro's growth on the last trading day of the week. The potential target for moving up is the psychological level of 1.10 and the April 19 high of 1.0990.
As we have already said in recent fundamental reviews, market participants are currently ignoring the entire macroeconomic background. Yesterday was no exception, all the macroeconomic reports of the day, including the important report on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, had no effect on the pair's movement. The dollar started to fall much later than the publication of this report. Several important US data will be released today. We have already said in fundamental reviews that they are unlikely to have any effect on the course of today's trading. Nevertheless, paying attention to them is still worth it. Especially on NonFarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. In all other respects, tomorrow will have to be not much different from other days. Even if there is any data on the topic of "evidence of China's fault on the issue of" coronavirus " or Donald Trump makes a loud speech again, this is unlikely to again affect the mood of traders. Thus, we believe that today will be exclusively corrective and exclusively technical.
Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for May 8:
1) During the last trading day of the week, we expect the euro to grow to the Senkou Span B (1.0873) and Kijun-sen (1.0893) lines. There is also a resistance area of 1.0881 - 1.0894 between these lines, from which the pair has repeatedly rebounded. We do not recommend rejecting these goals, as market participants may not overcome them today or overcome them, but not on the first try. But after consolidating above them, we advise you to open buy orders with the target of 1.0990. The potential Take Profit order in this case will be 93 points.
2) The second option - bearish - suggests a rebound from the area of 1.0873 - 1.0893 with the resumption of the downward movement. However, we recommend that you be extremely careful with this signal, as it may be false. But consolidating below the long-term trend line (and at the same time and below the support area of 1.0762 - 1.0774 and below the support level of 1.0754) will definitely cause a downward trend to form, in which case it will be possible to open sales with the target support level of 1.0645. The potential to Take Profit in the execution of this scenario is 110 points.
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