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The USD/CAD pair drops at the time of writing. It's trading at 1.2623 level and it seems very heavy despite the temporary rebound. The price turned to the upside and it has managed to recover only because the Dollar Index rebounded after reaching 97.73 key level.
The bias is still bearish as CAD received a helping hand from the Canadian retail sales data. The Retail Sales indicator rose by 3.2% in January versus 2.4% expected and after a 2.0% drop in December. Furthermore, Core Retail Sales surged by 2.5% exceeding the 2.3% forecasts. Fundamentally, the USD received a hit from the US Existing Home Sales which dropped from 6.49M to 6.02M below 6.10M estimates.
As you can see on the h4 chart, USD/CAD drops within a down-channel pattern. As long as it stays below the downtrend line and under the median line (ML). In the short term, it has tried to recover after its amazing sell-off.
1.2586 lower low is seen as a potential downside target. Only a major and strong bullish reversal signal around this level could announce that the sell-off is over. Actually, the down channel could represent a bullish pattern.
The currency pair could announce a new leg higher and could bring fresh long opportunities if it stays above the 1.2586 and if it makes a valid breakout above the downtrend line and through the median line (ML).
A valid breakdown below the 1.2586 could activate a larger downside movement.
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