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GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD pair was also influenced by macroeconomic reports, which has not happened so much lately. The UK released its fourth quarter GDP report in the second estimate early in the morning (figure "1"). Let us remind you that there was a serious surprise at the first assessment, since instead of the expected "-" it turned out to be a "+". Yesterday morning it became known that GDP grew from 1.0% y/y to 1.3% y/y, which naturally provoked an increase in the British pound's quotes. In principle, at this point it was possible to buy the pound, since the GDP report was unambiguous and did not overlap with other reports. However, this was still not a technical signal. The technical buy signal was formed much later, when the pair had already moved up near 35. The price initially rebounded off the Kijun-sen line, but could not continue the downward movement and settled above this line. As a result, a false sell signal was generated, the loss from which should have been completely covered by the profit from the next buy signal. The pair did not reach the target level, but given the relative range of the target level, it was possible to close buy trades without waiting for Take Profit. Further, the pair's quotes returned to the Kijun-sen line and the 1.3755 level again and formed another buy signal, afterwards the price went up another 40 points, but also, like in the morning, it could not reach the target level. Thus, traders could earn a few tens of points on today's movements, since, after all, two of the three signals were not false and there's a strong report on GDP. But the bulls' weakness, unfortunately, made them fail to reach the target of 1.3820.
GBP/USD 1H
We could see on the hourly timeframe that the pound/dollar pair crossed the critical line at the end of the day, which increases the likelihood of further growth to the Senkou Span B line. However, the angle of its slope indicates the weakness of the upward trend. In general, the pound continues to lean towards a new upward trend, but we can see that bulls do not have enough strength to form a strong upward movement. We are watching the development of the situation. The UK will also publish a report on business activity in the manufacturing sector, but the US ISM index is much more important. Also, do not forget about the report on claims for unemployment benefits in America, although the market will only react if there is a serious deviation of the actual value from the forecast. In general, we continue to recommend trading from important levels and lines, when rebounding from them and surpassing them. Several rebounds from the Kijun-sen line enable us to expect that the upward movement will continue. The price also rebounded from the 1.3755 level yesterday. You should also pay attention to the trend line, the extremum level of 1.3812 and the Senkou Span B line (1.3836). All these levels and lines can trigger signals to form. As before, you should set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 15-20 points in the right direction. The nearest level/line is always used as targets (exceptions - if the target is too close to the signal).
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair fell by only 37 points during the last reporting week (March 16-22). However, this fall is as conditional as the previous week's growth. The pair travels around 37 points in an hour. Thus, it is impossible to say that the pair sharply dropped over the reporting week. But the Commitment of Traders (COT) report talks about quite serious changes. Non-commercial traders closed 3,200 buy contracts (longs) and opened 4,400 sell contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. Thus, the net position for the pound immediately decreased by 7,600, which is quite a lot and reflects that the bullish mood has significantly weakened among professional traders. Thus, despite the fact that the pound shows a not so strong fall (which is clearly seen in the chart), while the COT reports that more eloquently signal the end of the upward trend. However, an assumption should also be made here. The green and red lines of the first indicator have often changed the direction of movement over the past 6-8 months, so here it just cannot be said that the end of the upward trend has been brewing for a long time. In general, the pound's situation is more complicated and confusing than the euro's. Considering the fact that much will depend on the US economy, both the euro and the pound can resume growth.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.
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