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GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD pair began a sharp decline on Tuesday, April 6. Moreover, it is rather difficult to explain what caused quotes to drop, given that the pair was steadily rising yesterday. The European currency was also growing today, but the bulls for the pound unexpectedly began to leave the market, which led to a new round of downward movement. No macroeconomic reports released in either the UK or the US on Tuesday. There were no other important events either. Given the lack of correlation between the euro and the pound yesterday, there is reason to believe that the reasons lie in Britain. However, as we have already said, there were no important events yesterday. Let's start analyzing trading signals and trades. The first sell signal was formed at the European trading session when the quote surpassed the level of 1.3883. Soon, it reached the nearest level of 1.3846, and a little later, the Senkou Span B line (1.3836), which could bring about 30 points of profit to traders. Unfortunately, this is where the clear signals ended. Further, the price crossed the Senkou Span B line, but could not continue moving down, afterwards it settled above this line and could no longer continue moving up. Thus, at least two false signals were generated, each of which brought losses, which in total "ate up" all the profit from the first deal of the day. After two false signals were generated at once near the same line, we would no longer recommend entering the market with new deals. Therefore, we would have missed the next time the quote overcame the Senkou Span B line, despite the fact that in the end the nearest extreme level of 1.3812 was reached.
GBP/USD 1H
We can see that the pound/dollar pair maintains an upward trend on the hourly timeframe, as evidenced by the upward trend line. However, there was no longer any upward movement on Tuesday, which makes us doubt that it would continue to move up even further. We have already reiterated that it is quite possible that the dollar has entered a new long segment of its own decline. However, so far, the entire upward trend looks very uncertain. As of today, the UK is set to publish its Services PMI, but as with the European indices, we are not expecting a strong market reaction. The same goes for the Federal Reserve's minutes in the evening. The pound is trading quite briskly at the beginning of this week, but not to say that volatility is off the charts. Normal working volatility, for which a strong fundamental background is not at all necessary. In general, we continue to recommend trading from important levels and lines, when rebounding from them and overcoming them. Thus, we are waiting for the correction to end and the resumption of the upward track. The most important levels and lines are 1.3812, 1.3846, 1.3914 and the Kijun-sen line (1.3831). Rebounds or breakthroughs of these price values will be sources of signals. As before, it is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. The nearest level/line is always used as targets (exceptions - if the target is too close to the signal).
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair fell by only 37 points during the last reporting week (March 16-22). However, this fall is as conditional as the previous week's growth. The pair travels around 37 points in an hour. Thus, it is impossible to say that the pair sharply dropped over the reporting week. But the Commitment of Traders (COT) report talks about quite serious changes. Non-commercial traders closed 3,200 buy contracts (longs) and opened 4,400 sell contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. Thus, the net position for the pound immediately decreased by 7,600, which is quite a lot and reflects that the bullish mood has significantly weakened among professional traders. Thus, despite the fact that the pound shows a not so strong fall (which is clearly seen in the chart), while the COT reports that more eloquently signal the end of the upward trend. However, an assumption should also be made here. The green and red lines of the first indicator have often changed the direction of movement over the past 6-8 months, so here it just cannot be said that the end of the upward trend has been brewing for a long time. In general, the pound's situation is more complicated and confusing than the euro's. Considering the fact that much will depend on the US economy, both the euro and the pound can resume growth.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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