12.04.202115:40 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD. Sterling relies on hope and faith as all other factors point to a decline

Today is the day when retail stores that sell non-essential goods, as well as pubs, bars, and restaurants that have the ability to serve customers outdoors, will partially open in England after almost 100 days of lockdown.

"Today is an important step forward in our roadmap to freedom. I am sure this will be a huge relief for those business owners who have been closed for so long," said British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

This is certainly a big step for Britain and business, but it is worth considering that about 70,000 retail jobs were already lost last year, according to the British Retail Consortium.

In turn, retailers who are reopening their doors have spent millions of pounds on measures to promote safe shopping, from glass barriers at check-in to more frequent cleaning. They also worked with the government to address issues related to staff testing, and they simply won't be able to make up for the losses anytime soon.

As for the tourism industry, it is still very, very bad and we are not talking about recovery yet.

At the same time, British exporters reported lower sales in the first quarter after Covid-19, and the end of the long-running Brexit added to delivery delays, higher transport costs, and more extensive documentation, which carries large losses.

According to the British Chamber of Commerce, 41% of companies had lower revenue from overseas sales in the first quarter of the year, compared with 38% in the last three months of 2020. Hotels, retailers, and foodservice businesses were the hardest hit, according to the group's survey of more than 2,900 UK exporters.

These figures once again prove that the UK's exit from the European Union has upended supply chains and cooperation.

"With export sales at one of the lowest levels ever recorded in our data history, the fact that the situation continues to deteriorate is worrying. The difficulties exporters face are not just teething problems. These are structural problems that, if left unresolved, could lead to long-term, potentially irreversible weakness," said Hannah Essex, executive director of the British Chamber of Commerce.

Based on the above material, the joy, hope, and faith associated with the relaxation of quarantine measures are only a false perception of all the good things in the very difficult economic situation that the United Kingdom is facing.

What is happening in the market in terms of technical analysis?

Since the end of February, the GBP/USD currency pair has been following a correctional pattern from the peak of the medium-term trend of 1.4224, the scale of the weakening of the pound sterling is about 4%, and this is not so much when calculating the economic problems, as well as the scale of the upward movement in the period of 2020.

There is a potential for a decline in the exchange rate of the British currency in the market, and many traders are already planning a downward movement of at least 150-200 points, which will not yet be considered a change in trend.

As leverage for selling, as before, speculative operations can play if the price is kept below the local minimum of the existing correction of 1.3669. This is worth paying special attention to, as this may be the beginning of a strong decline.

Expectations and prospects

To begin with, pay attention to how accurately the volume of short positions is seduced in the area of the local correction minimum - 1.3669. Market participants hit the benchmark value (1.3669) on April 9 and 12, resulting in an immediate rebound, which indicates a high degree of natural basis for the reduction in trading volumes. This is a very good signal for sellers, as the base area is probed and the interaction of trade forces can be seen with the naked eye.

Thus, as soon as the price is kept lower than 1.3650 in a four-hour period, the chance for a depreciation of the pound sterling will increase significantly, and after it, the volumes of short positions will increase, which will lead us to the priority coordinates 1.3600-1.3550.

After that, the main target will be the area of interaction of trade forces 1.3200/1.3300/1.3400, but we will talk about this later.

What is happening on the GBP/USD chart in terms of indicator analysis and market dynamics?

Analyzing a different time sector, we see that technical instruments on the minute and hour intervals are signaling to buy due to the stage of a rebound from the 1.3669 area. The daily period signals a sale due to the corrective phase from the peak of the medium-term trend.

In terms of market dynamics, it can be seen that the activity on the market has noticeably decreased since April 8, but at the same time, the downward interest has not disappeared. At the same time, speculative excitement has the potential for growth, which is already visible on the market.