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Here's the details of the economic calendar for April 28:
Everyone's attention was focused on the results of a two-day meeting of the Committee on Open Market Operations (USA), where the regulator left the interest rate at the level of 0-0.25% without too much doubt.
The decision to maintain the key rate was not something unusual in the market, but the words that the Fed intends to keep the interest rate low until the maximum level of employment and inflation is reached at 2% in the long term, alerted traders, which led to a weakening of the US dollar.
According to the press release, the path of the economy will be highly influenced by the virus, which includes vaccination progress. The ongoing public health crisis continues to put pressure on the economy and economic risks remain in the future.
During the press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the economic state is still far from the goals, and it will probably take some time to make significant further progress.
To put it simply, Powell and his colleagues see progress in the economy, but it is still imaginary, which made investors concerned.
Analysis of trading charts from April 28:
The EUR/USD pair showed quite high activity yesterday, which led to the breakdown of the upper border of the variable range 1.2056/1.2092, and then to the update of the local high (1.2116) of April 26.
The trading recommendation on April 28 coincided with the forecasts. The amplitude fluctuation in the range of 1.2056/1.2092 became a kind of cumulative process for the market, where trading was carried out by the method of breaking a particular boundary. The hole at the upper level of 1.2092 opened the way towards the first predicted level of 1.2115. This brought us about 20 points of profit, which is $ 20 with the transaction volume of 1 Instalot.
Traders made their next actions after the price was held above the level of 1.2130. Here, deals are still active.
Following the euro, the British currency immediately increased, which led to a breakdown of the level of 1.3950. This became a new local high in the upward trend of April 23.
There were no sell positions for the trading recommendation on April 28, which led to their liquidation and the opening of a buy position in the area of 1.3927, where the results came out positive.
Trading recommendations of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on April 29, 2021
Today, the United States will release its preliminary data on GDP for the first quarter, where economic growth is predicted from 4.3% to 6.5% (y/y).
From the point of view of fundamental analysis, this is a buy signal for the US dollar.
Simultaneously with the data on GDP, American weekly figures on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will also be published, where the level is expected to remain practically unchanged.
The volume of initial applications for benefits may grow from 547 thousand up to 549 thousand.
The volume of repeated applications for benefits may fall from 3 674 thousand to 3 614 thousand.
Applications reflect the number of citizens who are not currently working and receiving unemployment benefits. This indicator reflects the state of the labor market, where the growth of the indicator negatively affects the level of consumption and economic growth.
In simple words:
An increase in the number of applications leads to a weakening of the national currency, while a decrease leads to strengthening.
Looking at the trading chart of EUR/USD, it shows an upward cycle, which has already led to a breakdown of a number of important price levels. If the price is held above the level of 1.2130, further development towards the range of 1.2180 - 1.2240 is not excluded. This process is leading to a full recovery relative to the scale of the elongated correction from the peak of the mid-term trend at 1.2349.
Traders will consider an alternative scenario if the price returns below the level of 1.2115, and even in this case, the upward cycle will not be canceled.
As for the trading chart of the GBP/USD, it can be seen that the price is holding above the 1.3950 mark. On the one hand it gives a positive signal for buyers, and on the other, the quote moves within the psychological area of 1.3950/1.4000/1.4050.
In this situation, it would be most logical to move on local trading operations, where buy positions are considered in terms of steps 1.3976 ---> 1.4000 and 1.4010 ---> 1.4045.
Short positions will be considered by traders based on a number of scenarios:
A rebound from the level of 1.4000, or if the price stays below the level of 1.3945 for a long time.
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