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EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair traded very calmly and with a slight downward bias until the US session on May 12. The US inflation report for the month of April was published at the very beginning of this session. As a reminder, a sharp acceleration of the consumer price index to 2.6% y/y was recorded in March. Analysts predicted an even greater acceleration of inflation in April, up to 3.6% - 3.8% y/y. In reality, inflation was 4.2% y/y !!! By the way, a strong acceleration affected not only inflation, but also its basic indicator, which, for example, the Federal Reserve values much more than usual. The consumer price index excluding food and energy prices rose from 1.6% to 3.0% y/y. Thus, the entire third trading day of the week could be conditionally divided into "before inflation" and "after inflation". Traders did not have to trade in the first half of the day since signals were not generated. The pair came close to the extreme level of 1.2145, but did not reach it. Well, those movements that began after the inflation report was released were very difficult to predict and even more so to work out. First, after such a strong and unambiguous report, everyone expected a movement in one direction. In practice, the versatile movements began, quite strong ones. Secondly, as we said earlier, inflation is a negative moment for the national currency. And at a rate of 4.2% for the economy. Thus, it would be much more logical to see the dollar fall and the growth of the euro/dollar pair in the US session. However, market participants themselves, it seems, did not understand what to do with such a report and such figures, as a result, we observed a "storm". Naturally, it was also not necessary to open positions in the US session. Although the most interesting thing is that the price reached important levels and lines and formed signals around them twice, which hypothetically could bring a solid profit.
EUR/USD 1H
Yesterday's "swing" is also clearly visible on the hourly timeframe in the afternoon. There is only one thing that can be added here: the upward trend is still preserved, and the upward trend line remains relevant. Thus, we expect the price to rebound off the Senkou Span B line or trend line and resume the upward movement. On the contrary, if the trend line is crossed, then the trend will change to a downward one, and the pair may move to a protracted fall, although in the long term we continue to support the option of further growth. Today, we still recommend trading from important levels and lines that are indicated on the hourly timeframe. The nearest important levels at this time are 1.1988, 1.2076, 1.2113 and 1.2145. Senkou Span B (1.2067) and Kijun-sen (1.2103) lines are also important and can be signal sources. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15-20 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. No major events scheduled for Thursday in the European Union, and there are only minor reports in America, such as the producer price index and claims for unemployment benefits. In theory, volatility should decrease today, and movements should stabilize.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
The EUR/USD pair fell by 20 points during the last reporting week (April 27-May 3). During the same time, a group of non-commercial traders opened 7,000 buy contracts and 6,000 sell contracts. Thus, the net position increased by only 1,000 contracts over the reporting week, which is very, very little for the euro. Thus, we can say that the new Commitment of Traders (COT) report did not record any changes. But in general, the situation with the European currency remains rather strange. One might say that the upward trend in the euro has resumed, but professional traders do not observe an increase in long positions. The first indicator in the chart perfectly shows this. Moreover, according to the COT reports, the upward trend is drying up and losing its bullish momentum since last September. However, in fact, all this time, the upward movement is still present, so the data from the COT reports now does not quite accurately reflect what is happening on the market. The second indicator shows that the net position of non-commercial traders has been falling since last September. But if major players reduce the number of euro longs and increase the number of shorts, then the euro should decline. But in fact, it is not decreasing. We have only one explanation for this: the continued growth of the US money supply. Since the number of dollars is constantly growing, no matter what the actions of large players in the foreign exchange market, they simply cannot block the actions of the Federal Reserve. The dollar supply is constantly increasing, so even if large players are also constantly selling euros, the euro would still rise. Such is the paradox, but over the past year we have seen many paradoxes and illogicalities. One has only to look at the chart of the movement of the pound...
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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