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EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair was trading very calmly again on Tuesday. Volatility of the day was only 46 points. Therefore, it was very difficult for traders to rely on many signals, as well as large profits throughout the day. There was a macroeconomic background for the euro/dollar pair in the form of one overseas report. Retail sales in the United States fell by 1.3% in May, which was somewhat of a surprise for traders. Recently, it is generally accepted that the US economy is recovering very quickly, so every weak report is perceived by the markets with disappointment. However, as reality shows, only inflation is growing steadily in the United States, which is just a negative factor. One way or another, but the only trading signal of the day was formed just at the time when this report was published. The quotes of the pair dropped to the extreme level of 1.2104 and performed an ideal rebound in terms of accuracy. Thus, even despite the fact that a rather important report was published, this signal could be worked out, since hardly anyone expected that this report would be followed by a reaction of the same magnitude as the Federal Reserve meeting or NonFarm Payrolls report. Moreover, after a while it became clear that the rebound is not false, and the report does not have a strong impact on the pair's movement. As a result, traders should have taken long positions. True, the upward movement continued after its formation by only 15 points, so the deal had to be manually closed at the end of the working day at a profit of 10-11 points. A little, but better than nothing, and better than a loss.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 16. The US dollar has the potential to rise by 400 points, but this may take up to 3 months.
EUR/USD 1H
The euro/dollar pair also shows a rebound from the level of 1.2104 on the hourly timeframe, as well as the fact that the price continues to be inside the downward channel, which is quite formal. The fact is that its angle of inclination is minimal. In order for the pair to go down some 160 points, it took a whole month. Thus, this trend is also a purely formal trend. However, there is a slight downward trend. The pair tried to recover to the Kijun-sen line after Friday's fall, but so far it has failed to do so. Given the current volatility, this is not surprising. On Wednesday, we still recommend trading from important levels and lines that have remained unchanged lately. The nearest important levels at this time are 1.2051, 1.2104, 1.2160, 1.2213, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.2178) and Kijun-sen (1.2155) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15-20 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. There are no major events scheduled for Wednesday in the European Union. But in the United States, the results of the next Fed meeting will be announced. Although the markets do not expect any changes in monetary policy, nevertheless, we might receive important and new information from the US central bank. However, in any case, this event will happen in the evening, so nothing should interfere with trading during the day.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
The EUR/USD pair fell by 40 points during the last reporting week (June 1-7). All the weeks that recently passed have ended with such minor changes. Not surprising given that the pair has been in a limited range for several weeks now. Professional traders closed about 5,500 buy contracts (longs) and around 400 sell contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. Thus, the net position for the "non-commercial" group decreased by 5,000 contracts. These are small changes for the European currency, which is still the most popular among all players in the world after the dollar itself. Recently, however, non-commercial traders have mainly increased their longs, so the data from the last reporting week can be considered an exception in some way. So far, the main lines of the first indicator continue to move away from each other, which indicates that the bullish mood on the market is preserved. Consequently, we have the right to count on a new strengthening of the European currency, especially since the factor of the global increase in the money supply in the United States continues to work in favor of the European currency.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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