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EUR/USD is trading under strong downward pressure fueled by fears that the FED could be more aggressive and could raise the interest rate by 100 basis points. This uncertainty caused investors to take refuge in the US dollar and left behind traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. The speculative interest is likely to stop and the euro could start a technical rebound.
The US Federal Reserve released the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting. Policymakers repeated their well-known hawkish message but at least refrained from hinting at a 1.00% hike. US officials, however, left the door open for another 0.75% hike.
According to the daily chart, the euro has found strong support in the 1.0160 area that can be seen in the chart. The downtrend channel has been formed since May 20. A strong technical bounce is expected in the coming days if EUR/USD consolidates above 3/8 Murray.
EUR/USD is trading below all of its moving averages, with the 21 SMA (1.0455) keeping its slope firmly bearish above the current price (1.0167) and above the 200 EMA at 1.1000.
In the medium term, the outlook remains very low, it is likely that the euro could reach the parity of 1 dollar for 1 euro, but a strong technical rebound is expected in the coming days, only if it consolidates above 1.0130 (3/8 Murray).
According to the 4-hour chart, the euro is generating an oversold signal. According to the 1-hour chart, there is a strong oversold signal. The euro is expected to consolidate around the 1.0130 area which could suggest the opportunity to buy.
According to the daily chart, we can see that the eagle indicator is giving a positive signal. However, it is approaching the overbought zone. This divergence could be a negative sign for the Euro. Before a sharp decline, the currency pair is likely to bounce towards the 21 SMA zone at 1.0456. Should the bullish force prevail, EUR/USD could reach the top of the downtrend channel formed on March 25 at around 1.0580.
Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy if EUR/USD settles above 1.0160 or in case of a technical bounce at around 1.0130, with targets at 4/8 Murray and 5/8 Murray.
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