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Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
There was a signal to sell on Thursday morning, but there was no large movement even though the MACD line was moving below zero. Then, a buy signal appeared, but there was also no large movement even though the MACD line was at the oversold area. Obviously, low market volatility kept EUR / USD in a sideways trend.
Euro remained in a tight channel yesterday because the economic forecast from the European Commission surprisingly did not have any impact on the market. Perhaps, this is because the projections were almost the same, not to mention there were no negative estimates regarding economic recovery.
Today it is necessary to pay attention to the report on the German wholesale price index, but more important will be the volume of industrial production in the eurozone. If the data exceed expectations, demand for euro could soar. But the speech of ECB board member Philip Lanes may offset this and put some pressure on the currency. Then, in the afternoon, the US will publish its report on consumer sentiment, which may provoke another rise in dollar. Following this, Fed member John Williams will speak, but his statements will have little effect on the market.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.1453 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1496. Growth will be observed if the Euro area reports very strong data on industrial production.
Before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1430, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1453 and 1.1496.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.1430 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1385. Fears of strong inflationary pressures in the US will push EUR / USD down, as will weak economic data on the Euro area.
Before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro could also be sold at 1.1453, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1430 and 1.1385.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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