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Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
There was a signal to buy in the market on Thursday, but the increase was limited because the MACD line was at the overbought area. Some time later, a signal to sell appeared, and this time it provoked a 35-pip decrease because the MACD indicator was still in the overbought area. No other signal appeared for the rest of the day.
Employment data in the Euro area did not make an impression on traders, but the report on inflation did. The surge provoked a rise in EUR/USD, which sadly did not last long because the speech of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen boosted demand for dollar. She noted that she currently does not see any signs of a wage cycle that will drive up consumer prices and employment costs, but growth in the labor market is limited, especially in terms of metrics, including historically high unemployment rates.
Today, the pair may rally again as PMI reports on eurozone countries will be released. Strong performances will lead to an uptrend, but the move will be limited because the US will also release data on its labor market. The data will affect the position of the Fed towards monetary policy, particularly on whether they should scale back measures to prevent stronger inflationary pressures. Good PMI reports will also raise dollar demand.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.1308 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1343. Demand will increase if statistics in the Euro area exceed expectations. But growth will be limited by possible problems with the new coronavirus strain and strong data on the US labor market.
Before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1288, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1308 and 1.1343.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.1288 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1260. Weak data on the eurozone and strong statistics in the US will provoke a decrease in EUR / USD.
Before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro could also be sold at 1.1308, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1288 and 1.1260.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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