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The EU refused to impose a ban on Russian oil and gas imports. This decision favored the energy market and resulted in a dramatic reduction in oil prices. Moreover, the foreign exchange market faced a sharp correction. For example, the single European currency rose significantly. This growth is evidently limited compared to its previous fall. Besides, the dollar will further strengthen. It dropped slightly yesterday, though the decline was temporary. Moreover, the local rebound was expected. The news background remains negative for the pound. The fighting escalates in Ukraine, provoking the outflow of capital from the EU.
The sanctions imposed on Russia are probably more harmful to Western Europe. Besides, the situation has not changed. Therefore, yesterday's rise of the single European currency is considered a local rebound. Moreover, the European Central Bank Board meeting will unlikely improve the current situation. The ECB is not willing to change its monetary policy. However, if the European regulator decides to raise the refinance rate, it will have a temporary effect. The current events are large-scale and their consequences are unpredictable. Therefore, the level of interest rates is irrelevant.
Likewise, US inflation should accelerate from 7.5% to 7.9%. However, this is February's data. It is evident that US inflation will skyrocket by the end of March. Besides, this fact is indicated by the rapid increase in gasoline prices. Moreover, this global issue is of key importance. Russia's special military operation in Ukraine and a huge number of sanctions imposed on Russia caused chaos in the world, resulting in a rapid increase in global consumer prices. Overall, as noted above, the current events are highly significant. Therefore, macroeconomic statistics are irrelevant now.
Inflation (United States):
The EUR/USD pair managed to consolidate above 1.1050 due to a rapid correction from the pivot point of 1.0800. This move may indicate regrouping of trading forces, stimulating a downtrend. Therefore, the volume of short positions will probably increase soon, resulting in a price reversal.
The GBP/USD pair pulled back after it temporarily consolidated at 1.3080. This move has led to the pound's partial recovery compared to its recent decline. The pullback is probably temporary. The pair resumed its downtrend. Consequently, the local low will most likely be renewed.
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