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The May meeting of the Fed was a real shock to the financial markets. By raising the federal funds rate to 1%, voicing a plan to phase out the balance sheet, and declaring that a 75 bps increase in borrowing costs is not something the committee is actively discussing, the central bank has whetted the speculative appetite. Investors were actively buying stocks, but their euphoria quickly turned into panic, which caused stock indices to experience the biggest roller coaster since the start of the pandemic. Bitcoin has not escaped this fate. Its quotes first added more than 5%, and then sank by as much as 11%, dropping to the very bottom since the outbreak of the armed conflict in Ukraine.
Despite its relative newness, the movement of the leader of the cryptocurrency sector is increasingly orderly. At present, fundamental analysis can be applied to this asset. This is evidenced by the leapfrogging correlation of bitcoin with the Nasdaq Composite. Since the beginning of the year, the cryptocurrency has decreased by 21%; the index of technology companies has noted the same result.
Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 Correlation Dynamics
The heart of the matter is in the entry into the market of large institutional investors who consider bitcoin as one of the components of the portfolio. It is impossible not to note the growing influence of Americans due to massive bans on cryptocurrencies by China. As a result, we can state with confidence that BTCUSD is a speculative instrument, the dynamics of which is influenced by the Fed's monetary policy, the associated debt rates, as well as the general state of the American economy.
The transition of the Fed from an ultra-loose monetary policy to a tough one and the withdrawal of liquidity from the market is bad for risky assets. If in the face of negative real rates on US bonds, investors bought everything that came to hand, now they will think thrice before doing so. Selling on growth is preferred due to fears that an overly aggressive increase in the federal funds rate will not only slow down the US economy, but could also drive it into recession. The worse US GDP looks, the worse it is for corporate earnings. And the fall of the Nasdaq Composite convinces of this.
Bitcoin, due to its speculative nature, is no exception. It has already fallen by 47% from the levels of the November record highs, and recently there has been an acceleration of capital outflow from the industry. So, according to CoinShares, in the week of April 29, investors withdrew $120 million from crypto products, resulting in a total outflow of $339 million over four five-day periods. CryptoCompare estimates the current capitalization of bitcoin at $716 billion, which is 17% less than at the beginning of April.
Technically, the fall of BTCUSD to the convergence zone of 32,600–33,400 is likely to continue. However, a rebound from it, followed by a return of quotes above 34,250, will create prerequisites for the activation of the Broadening Wedge reversal pattern. Thus, current short-term sales may be replaced by medium-term purchases.
BTCUSD, Daily chart
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