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As of this writing, USD/CHF is trading near 0.9550, continuing to decline towards key support levels 0.9440 (200 EMA on the weekly chart) and 0.9430 (200 EMA on the daily chart).
USD/CHF is also trading in the zone below important short-term resistance levels 0.9695 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart), 0.9645 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart), and the resistance level 0.9670 (50 EMA on the daily chart and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the upward correction to wave of decline that began in April 2019 near 1.0235).
There is one more important target on the way of price reduction to support levels 0.9440 and 0.9430—the support level 0.9495 (144 EMA on the daily chart and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level), where a rebound and growth to resistance levels 0.9645, 0.9670, and 0.9695 is possible.
In case of a successful breakdown of the support level 0.9495, the USD/CHF decline will reach our targets near the support levels 0.9440, 0.9430.
A breakdown of the support level 0.9395 (144 EMA, 50 EMA on the weekly chart) may once again return USD/CHF to the long-term bear market zone.
As SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan said after the bank meeting on June 16, the Swiss franc is no longer highly overvalued. It accepts the possibility of further strengthening of the franc, which the SNB has so consistently fought against recently, keeping the interest rate on deposits at a record low level of -0.75% and interfering in trading in the market with the sale of the franc.
In an alternative scenario (after a rebound from the support level 0.9495 and after the breakdown of the local resistance level 0.9731), USD/CHF will continue to grow towards recent highs above 1.0000.
For now, short positions remain preferable.
Support levels: 0.9555, 0.9500, 0.9495, 0.940, 0.9430, 0.9400, 0.9395
Resistance levels: 0.9645, 0.9670, 0.9695, 0.9731, 0.9800, 0.9900, 0.9970, 1.0000, 1.0060
Trading Tips
Sell Stop 0.9520. Stop-Loss 0.9625. Take-Profit 0.9500, 0.9495, 0.940, 0.9430, 0.9400
Buy Stop 0.9625. Stop-Loss 0.9520. Take-Profit 0.9645, 0.9670, 0.9695, 0.9731, 0.9800, 0.9900, 0.9970, 1.0000, 1.0060
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