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The final data on the business activity index in the services sector were published, which came out a little better than expected, but this did not save the euro and the pound from a rapid decline.
Traders attribute the collapse of the euro to 2002 levels as the ECB is likely to slowly raise interest rates as the economy risks falling into recession.
As a result, the market was ahead of the curve, selling off the euro.
During the inertial movement, the EURUSD currency pair updated the local low of the medium-term downward trend, as a result of which the quote was at the level of 2002.
The GBPUSD currency pair, following the euro, rushed down by more than 200 points. As a result, the psychological level of 1.2000 was broken, which prolonged the medium-term downward trend.
The daily trading chart shows a recovery of dollar positions by more than 82% relative to the uptrend of 2020-2021.
Today, the focus will be on data on retail sales in Europe, where the growth rate is assumed to decline from 3.9% to 3.1%, which may lead to further weakening of the euro. Further decline in consumer activity is a negative factor.
During the American trading session, data on open vacancies in the United States will be published, which is assumed to decrease from 11.4 million to 11.3 million. This is a negative factor that may affect dollar positions.
Time targeting:
EU retail sales – 09:00 UTC
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) - 14:00 UTC
In this situation, the speculative hype on the market goes off scale, which may lead to ignoring the signal of the euro being oversold. As a result, the downward move may accelerate towards the value of 1.0150–1.0000.
Note that sooner or later, short positions will be fixed, which will lead to a technical correction.
A local pullback towards the previously passed level may lead to a regrouping of trading forces, which will subsequently strengthen short positions. The next sell signal will occur after the price holds below 1.1900 in a four-hour period. This move will speed up the downward cycle.
A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices.
Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market.
Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future.
The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.
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