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The EUR/USD pair lost almost nothing on Thursday, but did not gain anything either. In the morning, traders tried to raise the quotes at least a little, but in the afternoon, a more familiar decline began. Remarkably, the most important report of the day - ADP in the US - was simply canceled, not released. Thus, traders had absolutely nothing to pay attention to during the day. As a result, the volatility was not high, but even with an empty calendar of macroeconomic events, the euro did not find the strength to make a decent correction. We assume that the correction may still start today, but this is just a hypothesis. A lot will depend on the Non-Farm report and the market reaction to it, which doesn't have to be logical.
As for trading signals, everything is boring and sad, since there wasn't any signal formed during the day. The pair simply did not approach any level or line. In fairness, take note that there are practically no levels at the current price values, and all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator lie much higher. Thus, traders had a half-day without trades.
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) reports on the euro over the past six months have raised a huge number of questions. The chart above clearly shows that they showed a blatant bullish mood of professional players, but at the same time, the euro was falling at the same time. At this time, the situation has changed a bit, and not in favor of the euro. If earlier the mood was bullish, but the euro was falling, now the mood has become bearish and... the euro is falling. Therefore, for the time being, we do not see any grounds for the euro's growth, because the vast majority of factors remain against it. During the reporting week, the number of long positions decreased by 6,100, and the number of shorts in the non-commercial group decreased by 11,100. Accordingly, the net position slightly increased by 5,000 contracts. However, the mood of major players still remains bearish. From our point of view, this fact very eloquently indicates that at this time even professional traders do not believe in the euro. The number of longs is lower than the number of shorts for non-commercial traders by 11,000. Therefore, we can state that not only does the demand for the US dollar remain high, but that the demand for the euro is also quite low. This may lead to a new, even greater fall of the euro. In principle, over the past few months or even more, the euro has not been able to show even a tangible correction, not to mention something more. The highest upward movement was about 400 points.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. July 8. The brief but important epic has come to an end. Sweden and Finland in NATO.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. July 8. Boris Johnson has resigned. The UK is in another political crisis.
Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on July 8. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.
The downward trend continues on the hourly timeframe, and in the last few days it can be called almost a "collapse". We have already said more than once that the euro can become cheaper at least until the end of this year, as the actions of the Federal Reserve provoke an increase in demand for the US dollar, and the geopolitical situation in Ukraine puts the entire European economy at serious risk. Therefore, we would not be at all surprised if price parity is reached much sooner than in a few weeks. We highlight the following levels for trading on Friday - 1.0340-1.0366, 1.0485, as well as Senkou Span B (1.0489) and Kijun-sen (1.0315) lines. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also secondary support and resistance levels, but no signals are formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will make a speech in the European Union on Friday. We don't think Lagarde, who spoke four times last week alone, will have anything important to say to the market. The NonFarm Payrolls report in the US is much more important. Although, in addition to it, data on wages and unemployment will also be published.
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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