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In the current situation, investors are putting the Fed's policy first, relegating geopolitical and inflationary risks to the background, also preferring the dollar as a protective instrument. It continues to strengthen in the currency market, and its DXY index reached a new local high of 108.47 today.
Meanwhile, XAU/USD continues to decline for the fourth month in a row, and yesterday the price hit a new low since September 2021, below 1708.00.
As we suggested in our previous reviews dated 05/02/2022, 05/23/2022, and 06/02/2022, a breakdown of support levels 1800.00, 1785.00 will push XAU/USD to further decline to key support levels 1738.00, 1700.00. At that time, the scenario worked, and the price moved, as we assumed, towards the 1700.00 mark.
Given the prevailing market sentiment and trends, it is likely that this mark will be reached soon. Also, most likely, the key long-term support levels 1687.00 (200 EMA on the weekly chart), 1682.00 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level to the growth wave since December 2015 and 1050.00) will be reached soon.
But the breakdown of the long-term support level at 1668.00 (50 EMA on the monthly chart) may "push" XAU/USD out of the long-term bull market zone, directing it towards the support levels of 1275.00 and 1050.00, the breakdown of which will complete this process.
In an alternative scenario, there will be a rebound from the support levels of 1682.00, 1687.00, and an upward correction of XAU/USD will begin with the prospect of growth towards the recent "balance line" passing through the 1800.00 mark.
The breakdown of the resistance levels 1746.00 (144 EMA on the weekly chart) and 1752.00 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart) will signal this. It is also possible that investors will remember gold as a defensive asset in the face of strong geopolitical and inflationary risks—this is the period we are currently experiencing.
Support levels: 1700.00, 1687.00, 1682.00, 1668.00
Resistance levels: 1746.00, 1752.00, 1785.00, 1800.00, 1817.00, 1832.00, 1843.00, 1875.00
Trading Tips
Sell Stop 1706.00. Stop-Loss 1753.00. Take-Profit 1700.00, 1687.00, 1682.00, 1668.00
Buy Stop 1753.00. Stop-Loss 1706.00. Take-Profit 1785.00, 1800.00, 1817.00, 1832.00, 1843.00, 1875.00
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