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The upcoming inflation data from the U.S. has always been a decisive factor in the cryptocurrency market, as it strongly influenced the mood of retail investors in general.
According to JPMorgan, if the CPI falls below 6.9%, it will trigger a rally in the traditional finance markets, which will certainly have a positive effect on the cryptocurrency.
According to the market consensus, the most likely result of year-on-year inflation today is 7.2%, which is above the aforementioned 6.9%.
However, historical analysis shows that the market consensus has almost never been correct, and the financial regulator often makes unexpected moves that push the market either up or down.
Prior to the release of the data, investors were building a soft landing narrative as a series of rate hikes pushed both traditional and crypto markets to their multi-month lows. During this time, investors actively reduced the risks of their portfolios and transferred funds to stable investment solutions.
In addition to the strong bullish result, JPMorgan considered possible scenarios for further declines in the markets. With a value of 7.8%, the index may lose more than 4.5% of its value, which will cause a local catastrophe on the markets.
The crypto market will react accordingly, with most assets losing more than 5%. The probability of such a high value is only 5%.
The most likely outcome is 7.2%–7.4%, which will lead to a moderate rally on the market and should have a positive impact on the digital assets market. But it certainly won't trigger a rally as most market participants had already priced it in.
Earlier reviews suggested that Bloomberg's lead commodity strategist Michael McGlone believes Bitcoin is likely poised to outshine gold.
But Goldman Sachs takes the opposite view on this age-old question. The largest U.S. bank believes that in the long term, gold will eclipse Bitcoin as it is an excellent portfolio diversifier.
The banking giant says the precious metal is less receptive to monetary tightening. Moreover, gold actually has use cases that are not based on purely speculative trading.
Back in 2020, Grayscale, the largest cryptocurrency asset manager, launched its first TV ad campaign urging investors to ditch gold in favor of Bitcoin.
The campaign, which portrayed the precious metal as bulky and outdated, has outraged many gold bugs, including Bitcoin nemesis Peter Schiff.
Despite the fact that the main cryptocurrency was constantly positioned as a digital version of gold and a hedge against inflation, after the U.S. Federal Reserve began raising interest rates, it fell along with other risky assets.
Bitcoin is now down 75% from its all-time high. According to Goldman Sachs, Bitcoin is actually trading as a volatile high-growth tech stock, meaning the "inflation hedge" narrative has not panned out.
Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs is ready to invest a substantial sum of money in profitable crypto firms amid the cryptocurrency crash. In May, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said he was optimistic about blockchain.
The correlation of Bitcoin with the stock market suggests that the future dynamics of the economy and stock assets may affect the cryptocurrency rate. In this regard, forecasts for the coming year are of particular interest.
Blackrock, one of the world's largest asset managers, has warned that 2023 will be a recession year different from other recessions in the past.
In the recent 2023 Global Outlook report, Blackrock foresees a period of recession driven by central bank inflation containment policies.
Against this background, the stock market may suffer greatly, which means that there is no need to talk about a bull market for stocks and bonds.
Blackrock notes that updating the economic configuration requires new ways to interact with the markets. The old "buy the dip" scenario will not work, as it is necessary to constantly reassess how dynamic policies are creating economic damage.
The firm has also published its opinion on crypto and cryptocurrency companies in the past. Larry Fink, CEO of Blackrock, stated that he believes most crypto companies will not survive the fall of FTX.
However, he acknowledged that blockchain technology will be important as a tool to help tokenize securities as part of the next generation of markets.
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