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After a tough 2022, 2023 is unlikely to be any easier for crypto stocks. At least the macroeconomic scenarios look grim.
Consider the broad framework of expectations and key factors that will impact the crypto economy and the broader economy.
There are three factors worth considering now that could have a significant impact on the global economy: the value of stocks, precious metals and crypto-assets.
The first of these is inflation. Inflation is expected to peak in most major economies. It is a key concern for investors and will certainly play a role in US markets in 2023.
Rising inflation could make it more difficult for companies to increase sales and revenues. It could also discourage retail investors from investing in high risk digital assets.
Therefore, investors will pay close attention to how inflation affects the US and global economy.
The second factor is the recession. I already mentioned yesterday that IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva recently said in an interview that the new year will be "tougher than the year we left behind."
She stressed: "We expect one-third of the world economy to be in recession. Even countries that are not in recession, it will feel like a recession for hundreds of millions of people."
As the world's three major economies, the US, EU and China, are all slowing down simultaneously, the markets are facing the threat of an impending recession.
With aggressive monetary tightening and geopolitical shocks, economic downturns could force crypto companies (or projects) to shut down or stall their growth.
Finally, a third factor would be global supply chain disruptions. The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine shows no signs of slowing down. In addition, the COVID-19 situation in China is far from "under control". Both of these situations are straining the already strained global supply chains.
From the movement of wheat and natural gas to electronics and other commodities, the fragmented global supply chain can lead to high commodity prices. If the financial market crisis continues because of this, it could lead to apathy in the crypto industry and hinder its growth.
The collapse of cryptocurrency projects in 2022 and the bankruptcy of FTX have undermined confidence in the industry. Dante Disparte, the chief strategy officer of stablecoin issuer Circle, believes that cryptocurrency technology will shift toward steadier hands in 2023. The turmoil experienced in the crypto market last year was necessary to flush out the bad actors.
He added that the growing use of crypto in the financial services industry and the ongoing bear market, coupled with the collapse of some exchanges, could ultimately be a boon for the industry.
The events could pave the way for "responsible, always-on internet finance." Disparte added that;
"Just as it took the dot-com bubble bursting in the early 2000s to hand over the future of the internet to more durable companies, business models and use cases, perhaps 2022 marks a handover of crypto technology and blockchain infrastructure to steadier hands."
Disparte also gave his opinion on cryptography and blockchain technology. He believes that blockchain technology will remain an integral part of the modern economic toolkit.
"Indeed, as a test of the staying power of digital assets and blockchains at the core of financial services (and other areas of the global economy), watch what the big banks and mature financial services firms do, not what they say."
Disparate also criticized traditional financial institutions for putting down cryptocurrency with one hand while trying to co-opt its innovations with the other.
Back from the general to the particular. Bitcoin maintains low volatility. However, recent data and analysis show that despite sideways movement, the major cryptocurrency is behaving as expected.
The analytical resource Ecoinometrics notes that Bitcoin is becoming more stable over time. Experts note that "so far the pattern of less extreme volatility events as Bitcoin matures is confirmed."
The data showed volatility declines at identical points in every four-year halving cycle, making 2022 firmly fit the trend of volatility decreasing more in each bear market year.
Nevertheless, Ecoinometrics notes that volatility has yet to reach record lows, contrary to data from newer sources such as the Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index (BVOL).
As for triggers that could disrupt the volatility status quo, investors may not need to look far.
In addition to the return of TradFi volume on Jan. 3, analysts are eyeing a potential confrontation between BTCUSD and gold.
Comparing the two assets shows the impact of the FTX meltdown in November enduring for Bitcoin, while gold has seen a comparative renaissance. Prior to that, they were trading in close correlation.
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