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If the market doesn't go where it is expected to be seen, the chances of it moving in the opposite direction increase sharply. The pound had enough data to restore the upward trend against the U.S. dollar, yet it did not took advantage of it. As a result, the GBPUSD pair continues to be stuck in consolidation, fearing that the strength of the American economy will revive its currency from the ashes.
It would seem that at the end of the second ten-day period of April the positivity on Britain was over the top. First, the labor market was pleasingly positive, with low unemployment and average wages rising 6.6%, beating Bloomberg experts' forecasts of 6.2%. Then inflation did not want to fall below the critical 10% mark, which raised the implied repo rate ceiling from 4.75% to 5%. The futures market is counting on three more acts of monetary tightening by the Bank of England at 25 bps each, the first of which will occur in May. Against the background of the imminent end of the Fed's monetary restriction cycle, this should have led to a rise in GBPUSD quotes. But in fact it turned out to be more than modest.
One could blame Silvana Tenreyro's speech, which compared the British economy to a fool in the shower. It scalds itself with boiling water instead of waiting for the water to cool down to a comfortable temperature. Allegedly, the tightening of monetary policy is not yet fully felt, but it will manifest itself, so it's time to stop raising the cost of borrowing. In fact, Tenreyro has long been considered the Bank of England's chief "dove." The markets are used to this.
Meanwhile, statistics on the UK continued to delight the eye. Following the increase in GfK's consumer confidence to its highest level since the beginning of the armed conflict in Ukraine, business activity reached its annual peak. In this regard, the UK is not inferior to either the eurozone or the U.S., so the IMF's forecasts of a reduction in its GDP in 2023 look overly gloomy.
Purchasing Managers' Index Dynamics
Finally, another good news for GBPUSD was the upgrade of the UK's credit rating outlook from "negative" to "stable" by Standard & Poor's. According to the agency, the government's decision to abandon most of the non-financial measures proposed in September 2022 improved budgetary prospects. Coupled with falling energy prices, this reduced short-term recession risks.
Thus, the abundance of positive news could not push GBPUSD quotes upwards. The reason is investors' doubts about the end of the monetary tightening cycle and the Fed's "dovish" reversal in 2023. If U.S. GDP and inflation data turn out to be better than forecasts, the U.S. dollar may rise from the ashes, making sterling fans think twice before entering the fray.
Technically, a Splash and Shelf pattern is forming on the GBPUSD daily chart. It makes sense to buy the pair on the breakout of the upper limit of the consolidation range or shelf 1.237–1.247. Sell—in case of a successful assault on support at 1.237.
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