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Bitcoin started the new trading week on a bullish note. The cryptocurrency price reached a level of $27.5k at one point, but it failed to consolidate above this mark. Subsequently, the bears took over, and BTC returned to the $26.5k level.
Despite the bearish sentiments in the market, the asset found local support near the $26.5k level. The strong support zone triggered a local price pullback, causing Bitcoin to settle above the $27k level. At this stage, this cryptocurrency movement should not be taken as a signal to reverse the trend.
If Bitcoin continues its upward movement and overcomes the local resistance level at $27.5k, the asset will pave the way to $28.2k. This level is the key target for the bulls, reaching which will finally complete the local correction cycle.
The neckline of the "head and shoulders" technical analysis pattern, which was fully worked out last week, runs near the $28.2k level. Also, the $28.2k mark serves as a powerful resistance zone where the downward trend level from April 14 passes. At that time, the price tested the $31k level and began to decline.
Considering all of the above, the main task for the bulls in the near future will be to finally end the bearish period. For this, a bullish breakout and consolidation above the $28.2k–$28.5k level is required. As of May 16, the bulls do not have the necessary potential, so further consolidation should be expected.
If, in a positive scenario, BTC/USD makes a full bullish breakout of the $28.2k level, in a negative development, there could be several scenarios. The Bitcoin price can make a false breakout of the level and drop back to $26.5k. There is also a possibility that Bitcoin will fail to overcome the $28k mark.
In any of these scenarios, the probability of ending the bullish trend significantly increases. The asset will retest the $25k level and continue to decline to $24.6k, where the base of the bullish trend is. If the $28.2k breakout is unsuccessful, the potential for BTC's downward movement reaches the $23k mark.
As of 08:00 UTC, BTC/USD managed to recover slightly in price and reach the $27.1k level. However, there is no talk of a full consolidation, as there is an active seller in the market. At the same time, there is a surge of buyers who managed to push the price up in another attempt to decline.
On Friday, May 12, the cryptocurrency price hit a local low at $25.8k. Obviously, in the coming days, we will see more bullish impulses and attempts to "climb" to the $28.2k mark. This is suggested by the growing network activity, which should be followed by an increase in trading volumes.
On the daily chart, the cryptocurrency's technical metrics point to a flat price movement. The stochastic and RSI continue to move sideways near the 40 level. Meanwhile, the MACD has exited the red zone but continues to decline.
On the 4H chart, we see the first signals for a likely development of an upward surge. The RSI has taken an upward direction, and the stochastic has formed a bullish crossover. The MACD has entered the green zone but retains a flat direction.
In the coming days, we will see more intraday price surges due to increasing BTC volatility. The labor market report publication on Thursday and the speeches by the Fed members on monetary policy on Friday will serve as catalysts for an increase in trading volumes, and we will see more active price movement.
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