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On the 1-hour chart on Friday, GBP/USD reversed in favor of the British pound and continued to rise towards the 1.2623 level. An ascending trendline indicates that the market sentiment is bullish. A bounce off the 1.2623 level would benefit the US dollar and return the pair to the 1.2546 level. If the pair closes above 1.2623, it would increase the chances of further growth towards the next Fibonacci level of 0.0% at 1.2676.
The US dollar continues to lose ground although nothing serious has happened at the beginning of the new week. However, a potential pause in Fed's rate hike in June along with a significant drop in US inflation that can be revealed tomorrow support the pound buyers. Besides, the Bank of England's meeting next Thursday could see the interest rate rise for the thirteenth time in a row. Several factors suggest this possibility.
Firstly, inflation in the UK remains elevated despite the latest decline. Secondly, none of the Bank of England officials has declared a pause or break in monetary tightening. Thirdly, Jonathan Haskel, one of the members of the UK regulator, stated today that the interest rate would continue to rise. Haskel also explained that the Bank of England carefully tracks inflation dynamics, and monetary policy should be based on inflation risks. Given the current state of inflation, the policy must be tightened without any exceptions.
Thus, we have a very probable drop in US inflation, a less likely drop in British inflation, a very probable pause from the Federal Reserve, and a thirteenth consecutive rate hike from the Bank of England. At the beginning of the week, bull traders have a reason for new purchases. Yet, the 1.2676 level still seems to be the highest possible target for them.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has settled above the triangle pattern, allowing the continuation of growth towards the Fibonacci level of 100.0% at 1.2674. However, a bearish divergence of the MACD indicator is still in place, which could initiate a reversal in favor of the US dollar and push the price lower towards the 1.2441 level. The divergence has not been fully formed yet and may be cancelled.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
The non-commercial group of traders has become less bullish on the pair over the past reporting week. Long contracts decreased by 5,257 while short contracts fell by 4,506. The overall sentiment of large market players remains bullish although the number of long and short positions is almost the same, with 65,000 and 52,000 respectively. In my view, the pound has good upside potential and benefits from the information background more than the US dollar does. However, I doubt that the pound will develop a strong uptrend in the coming months. The meeting of the Bank of England next week will clear up the pound's prospects.
Economic calendar for US and UK:
On Monday, the economic calendar in the US and UK has no important events. Therefore, the influence of the information background will be zero today.
GBP/USD forecast and trading tips:
New long positions on GBP/USD can be opened if the price closes below the level of 1.2546 on the H1 chart with the targets at 1.2470 and the trendline. It was possible to buy the pound when the price closed above 1.2470 with the target at 1.2546. This target has been reached and the next target is seen at 1.2623.
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