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The S&P 500 and Dow ended lower Thursday, showing choppiness amid volatile market sentiment. An initial rally fueled by a string of economic reports quickly faded, with investors turning their attention to key employment data due Friday. The Nasdaq, despite broader market wobbles, closed slightly higher.
Market sentiment remained tense ahead of the release of comprehensive nonfarm payrolls data that could shape the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The data is expected to be a key signal for a possible rate cut later this month.
Earlier in the session, the major indexes showed gains. At the time, investors took note of data that helped ease concerns about the health of the labor market. A survey by the Institute for Supply Management showed that activity in the services sector increased in August, and data from the Labor Department showed that jobless claims fell last week.
Eight of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 ended the day in the red. Health care and industrials were the biggest losers. However, the consumer staples sector showed gains, thanks in large part to Tesla's gains.
"Markets are on a roller coaster ride, from risk to rejection and back again, following the economic data. The Federal Reserve has made it clear, 'We're going to watch the data,'" said Wasif Latif, president and chief investment officer of Sarmaya Partners in Princeton, New Jersey.
The development highlights the key role that upcoming employment data will play in shaping the Fed's next moves and sentiment on Wall Street.
The stock market is awaiting data that will help better understand whether the economic landing will be soft or hard. Investors are trying to guess which scenario is most likely and what it will mean for the Federal Reserve's future moves on interest rates.
September has long been a tough month for U.S. stocks. The S&P 500's average monthly loss has been about 1.2% since 1928. This week has only confirmed that trend, with the index down more than 2.5% and the tech sector posting even bigger losses of about 4.8%.
The latest employment data from ADP showed that U.S. private employers hired the fewest workers since the start of 2021 in August. July's data was also revised down, indicating a potential slowdown in the labor market. That's creating tension among investors expecting a softer scenario for the economy.
"The market needs data that shows some weakness, but it's important not to overdo it," said Wasif Latif of Sarmaya Partners. — "Stocks are priced for a soft landing or lack thereof, while the bond market is recession-proof, expecting interest rates to fall."
Markets ended the day with mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 219.22 points, or 0.54%, to close at 40,755.75. The S&P 500 also fell 16.66 points, or 0.30%, to 5,503.41. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite showed a slight increase of 43.37 points, or 0.25%, to 17,127.66.
As such, markets remain in a state of uncertainty, balancing hopes for Fed easing and fears about a possible economic downturn.
Tesla (TSLA.O) shares jumped nearly 5% after the company said it plans to launch its advanced fully autonomous driving software in Europe and China as early as the first quarter of next year. The electric carmaker is awaiting regulatory approval, which could open up major new markets for it and strengthen its position in the race to become the leader in autonomous technology.
Frontier Communications (FYBR.O) shares fell sharply by 10% after the company announced it would be acquired by Verizon (VZ.N) for $20 billion. The all-cash deal raised investor concerns about Frontier's future under Verizon. Interestingly, Verizon shares also fell by 0.4%.
JetBlue Airways (JBLU.O) shares rose 7% after the airline raised its revenue forecast for the third quarter. The move sparked optimism among investors who expect the company's financials to improve amid robust demand for air travel.
The S&P 500 posted 42 new 52-week highs and 9 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite added 43 new highs and 136 new lows. Trading activity on U.S. stock exchanges totaled about 10.6 billion shares, slightly below the 20-day moving average of 10.7 billion shares.
MSCI's global equity index fell on Thursday amid mixed economic data and expectations for a key U.S. jobs report. Against this backdrop, oil prices remained at 14-month lows as concerns about weak demand offset a drawdown in inventories.
U.S. Treasury yields also fell, with two-year notes hitting a 15-month low. That came after the ADP private sector payrolls report for August showed significantly fewer new jobs than expected, adding further uncertainty to the market.
As such, investors continue to assess the outlook for economic growth and await further signals from the employment data that could shape the Federal Reserve's next moves.
The latest data showed that U.S. private employers hired the fewest workers in three and a half years in August, with July's numbers revised down, raising concerns about a possible sharp slowdown in the labor market. The news has done little to calm investors as they await Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which should shed light on the Federal Reserve's future plans for interest rates.
Economists are forecasting that about 160,000 new jobs will be created in August, up slightly from 114,000 in July. Amid those expectations, the odds that the Fed could ease its monetary policy have increased: bets that the Fed will cut interest rates by half a percentage point have risen to 41% from 34% last week. However, most traders think a quarter-percentage-point cut is more likely — about 59%, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Wall Street suffered its biggest daily loss in nearly a month on Tuesday as concerns about the health of the U.S. economy grew. Tuesday's drop "has done some damage to bullish sentiment and created some nervousness among investors both yesterday and today," said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles.
That leaves markets on edge as they try to anticipate the Fed's moves and the future direction of the U.S. economy amid heightened volatility and uncertainty.
"Today's data was fairly weak, raising the possibility of significant market volatility after the jobs report tomorrow morning," said Michael James. He added that "the increased nervousness is more likely to result in investors reducing their positions than adding to them."
Despite concerns, Thursday's data showed the resilience of the U.S. services sector in August. The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 51.5 from 51.4 in July, suggesting stability in that segment of the economy.
While the morning data from the services sector initially encouraged traders and led to a rise in stock markets, the enthusiasm quickly faded. By the end of the trading day, indices were lower as market participants began to prepare for an important employment report that could determine further dynamics in the coming weeks.
As such, anticipation of Friday's data is heating up the market, increasing tension among investors and preparing them for possible sharp changes.
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