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The wave analysis of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. We are currently observing the construction of the presumed wave 3 in 3 or c of the downtrend section. If this is the case, the decline in quotes will continue for quite some time, as the first wave of this segment completed its construction around the 1.0450 mark. Therefore, the third wave of this trend segment should end below.
The 1.0450 mark is the target only for the third wave. If the current downtrend section becomes impulsive, we can expect five waves, and the euro currency may decline below the 1.0000 mark. Undoubtedly, it isn't easy to expect such a development of events now, but there have been enough surprises in the currency market in recent years. Anything is possible.
Is there a probability of changing the wave analysis? It is always there. However, if since October 3rd of last year, we have observed a new uptrend section, then the last downtrend wave does not fit into any structure, which cannot be. Therefore, an upward segment is possible only with a significant complication of the wave analysis. Such a scenario seems unlikely, so I will base my analysis on the basic analysis.
Euro stopped at an important crossroads.
The EUR/USD pair rate hardly changed on Tuesday, and the range of movements was very low. The pair is at a standstill for the second day in a row, and the news background is practically absent. Yesterday, the market received information on business activity in the service sectors of Germany and the European Union, and today - on retail trade volumes in the EU. All this information caused almost no reaction from market participants.
According to Fibonacci, the pair remains below the 1.0788 mark, corresponding to 76.4%,. This mark is of great importance, and it is already clear that buyers will have a hard time breaking through it. A new downtrend wave in the structure of 3 or from may start from this mark. In case of consolidation above this mark, the construction of the current uptrend wave will continue, take an unnatural form, and may lead to adjustments to the entire wave structure. I want to avoid the last scenario, but things do not always go according to plan in the currency market.
I expect a further decline in demand for the euro currency, as I see no reason for the market to buy the pair if the ECB starts easing monetary policy as early as next month. At the same time, the Fed will not conduct the first round of easing in June. We'll have to wait at least a few more months, but with the current level of inflation, I won't be surprised if we don't see a reduction in interest rates by the end of the year.
General conclusions
Based on the EUR/USD analysis, the construction of a downtrend wave set continues. Waves 2 or b and 2 in 3 or c are completed, so I expect the resumption of constructing an impulsive downtrend wave 3 in 3 or c with a significant decrease in the pair. I continue to consider sales with targets around the calculated mark of 1.0462, as the news background remains on the side of the dollar. According to Fibonacci, an unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.0787 mark, equivalent to 76.4%, will indicate the market's readiness for new sales.
On a larger wave scale, it can be seen that the presumed wave 2 or b, which in length exceeded 61.8% according to Fibonacci from the first wave, may be completed. If this is indeed the case, then the scenario with the construction of wave 3 or c and a decrease in the pair below the 4-figure has begun to be implemented.
The main principles of my analysis:
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