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![Exchange Rates 08.07.2024 analysis]()
The price of West Texas Intermediate WTI crude oil continues to decline, trading just above the level of $82.00 per barrel.The decrease is explained by the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, taking into account the prospects for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Such an event has reduced concerns about supply disruptions. According to Reuters, discussions on the U.S. plan for a cease-fire and an end to the nine-month conflict in the Gaza Strip are continuing. Qatar and Egypt are acting as mediators in the negotiations.The decline in oil prices may stop due to potential disruptions in energy supplies to the United States against the background of tropical storm Beryl. On Sunday, in preparation for Hurricane Beryl, ports in Corpus Christi, Houston, Galveston, Freeport, and Texas City were closed. Reuters reports that the storm will hit the mid-Texas coast between Galveston and Corpus Christi later today.Additionally, Friday's weaker-than-expected employment data in the US increased the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates sooner than September. Lower Fed rates could help improve business conditions in the US, the largest oil consumer, thereby supporting demand for crude oil.In June, the number of jobs in the US non-farm sector increased by 206,000, following a May increase of 218,000. This figure exceeded market expectations of 190,000. Consequently, in June, the US unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from May's 4.0%. The average hourly earnings on an annual basis in June fell to 3.9% from the previous value of 4.1%, matching market expectations.According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in September is 70.7%, compared to 64.1% a week earlier. Reuters reports that the dollar faced challenges as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated last week that the Central Bank is returning to a path of disinflation.
![Exchange Rates 08.07.2024 analysis]()
From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily oil chart are in positive territory, and the price is far from the 100-day and 200-day SMA, suggesting that oil may remain above the round level of 82.00.
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