08.07.202413:54 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Simple trading tips for beginner traders for July 8th (US session)

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the price of 161.07 occurred when the MACD indicator was already in the overbought area, which limited the pair's upward potential and allowed scenario №2 for sale to be realized. However, as I mentioned in the morning forecast, the number of dollar buyers is increasing, and interest in the appreciated yen is rapidly declining. This prevented a strong downward movement of the pair, as seen last week. In the second half of the day, we are only expecting data on US consumer credit volume, which is of little interest to traders and unlikely to affect the pair's direction significantly. However, a return of pressure on the dollar is not out of the question, so I will pay attention to both scenarios. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the realization of scenarios №1 and №2.

Buy Signal

Scenario №1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 161.18 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 161.72 (thicker green line). Around 161.72, I will exit the purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the level). One can only count on the pair's growth today after strong US data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario №2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 160.90 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 161.18 and 161.71.

Sell Signal

Scenario №1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after breaking the 160.90 level (red line on the chart), leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 160.36 level, where I will exit the sales and open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points from the level). Sellers will manifest themselves after weak US data and continue the downward correction. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to fall from it.

Scenario №2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 161.18 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 160.90 and 160.36.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line: The entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: The estimated price for setting Take Profit or independently fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: The entry price to sell the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: The estimated price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: It is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Note

For beginner traders in the forex market, making market entry decisions very carefully is crucial. Before releasing important fundamental reports, staying out of the market is best to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.