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There are few macroeconomic events scheduled for Tuesday. We can only highlight reports on economic expectations from the ZEW Institute for Germany and the European Union, as well as the U.S. retail sales data. Frankly speaking, the European reports are of secondary importance, while the U.S report is a bit more significant. However, economic data (especially such reports) have been unable to affect the market mood recently. The market continues to interpret almost all the data against the U.S. dollar. To be fair, it is vital to mention that the U.S. has shown a few positive reports in recent months, but at the same time, these reports did not boost the dollar.
No particularly influential events on Tuesday. Federal Reserve official Adriana Kugler will speak, but the point is the market has ignored much more important speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. There was no immediate reaction to them, and they continued to put pressure on the dollar in the background. The market is still confident that in September the Fed will begin easing monetary policy, and in Powell's speech you can always find reasons to sell the dollar. Although the head of the Fed did not hint at a rate cut in September.
On Tuesday, the U.S. retail sales report may provoke an intraday reaction. Most likely, it will be another boring day with low volatility. The euro and the pound can continue to rise, because the market does not need any grounds for it at all. It is better to trade now based on technical analysis.
1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.
2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.
3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.
4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.
5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.
6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.
Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.
The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.
Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.
Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.
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