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On Monday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the corrective level of 0.0%–1.0917, reversed in favor of the US dollar, and began falling towards the corrective level of 23.6%–1.0843. On the one hand, bulls have been attacking tirelessly for 2.5 weeks, and a small break won't hurt them. On the other hand, almost every day, bulls find new reasons to grow. Therefore, I expect a decline in quotes today, but the bears' potential is very limited. Most likely, the pair may fall due to profit-taking on buy orders rather than opening new sell positions.
The wave situation has become more complicated. The new upward wave broke the peak of the previous wave and continued to form, while the last completed downward wave failed to break the low of the previous wave. As a result, we received two signs of a trend change from "bearish" to "bullish." The informational background has supported bull traders for two weeks in a row. Thus, bears currently have no opportunity to form even a corrective wave. There is no sign of a trend change to "bearish" at this time.
The informational background on Monday was relatively weak, but the industrial production report in the Eurozone supported the bulls in the morning. Traders expected to see a production volume drop of 1.0%, but it fell by 0.6%. However, it's time to forget this report as the next ECB meeting will take place on Thursday. Recent meetings of the European regulator did not cause a flurry of emotions among traders, as all its decisions were easily predictable. Most likely, this Thursday, we will not see a strong reaction or unexpected decisions from the ECB. I think only Christine Lagarde can surprise the market with unexpected statements, but the chances of this are small. Since inflation in the EU continues to slow down, Christine Lagarde has no reason to change her rhetoric.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the corrective level of 38.2%–1.0876. Thus, the growth process may continue towards the next Fibonacci level of 23.6%–1.0977. There are no emerging divergences today in any indicator. There is a need for a corrective wave on the hourly chart, so closing below the 1.0876 level on the 4-hour chart will work in favor of the dollar and some decline towards the corrective level of 50.0%–1.0794.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the last reporting week, speculators opened 1,460 long positions and closed 11,682 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group changed to "bearish" a few weeks ago, but currently, there is parity between bulls and bears. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 165 thousand, and short positions at 162 thousand.
I still believe that the situation will continue to change in favor of the bears. I do not see long-term reasons to buy euros, as the ECB has begun easing monetary policy, which will reduce the yield of bank deposits and government bonds. In America, they will remain at high levels for several more months, making the dollar more attractive to investors. The potential for the euro to decline, even according to COT reports, looks significant. At this time, the number of Short contracts among professional players is growing. However, one should not forget about graphical analysis, which currently allows for opposite conclusions.
News Calendar for the US and the Eurozone:
Eurozone – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (09:00 UTC).
Eurozone – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany (09:00 UTC).
USA – Change in Retail Sales (12:30 UTC).
On July 16, the economic event calendar contains three entries, with the US report standing out. The impact of the informational background on trader sentiment today may be weak.
Forecast for EUR/USD and Trader Tips:
Selling the pair was possible on a rebound on the hourly chart from the 1.0917 level with a target of 1.0843. Buying was possible upon closing above 1.0843 with a target of 1.0917. This level was reached yesterday. New purchases are possible upon closing above the 1.0917 level with a target of 1.0977.
The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.0602 to 1.0917 on the hourly chart and from 1.0450 to 1.1139 on the 4-hour chart.
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