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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound
The first test of the 1.2969 price occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly up from the zero mark, which limited the pound's upward potential despite the recent bullish market. The second test of 1.2969 occurred when the MACD was in the overbought area, allowing the implementation of scenario #2 for selling. As a result, the pair moved down about 10 points, and then the volatility ended. In the second half of the day, we expect data on changes in US retail sales, which could significantly impact the pound, but only if sales growth exceeds economists' forecasts. Additionally, the import price index and the NAHB housing market index figures will be released, along with a speech by FOMC member Adriana D. Kugler. Her statements, following Powell's speech yesterday, are unlikely to be of much interest. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point around 1.2971 (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to the level of 1.2991 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.2991, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). The pound's growth today can be expected to continue the upward trend, supported by weak US statistics. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and only starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2955 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market turn upwards. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.2971 and 1.2991.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after updating the level of 1.2955 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.2938 level, where I will exit sales and open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will assert themselves after an unsuccessful consolidation around the daily high. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and only starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2971 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market turn downwards. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.2955 and 1.2938.
What is on the Chart:
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make market entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, to trade successfully, you need to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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