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The precious metal has attracted buyers for the second day in a row, continuing its recovery from the more than one-week low reached on Monday. The weak tone in global stock markets has led some assets to shift towards commodities. The growing recognition that the Federal Reserve will start a rate-cutting cycle in September, along with political developments in the US, is helping gold recover its recent losses. However, traders should refrain from taking aggressive directional positions and prefer to wait for additional signals regarding the Fed's policy direction. The main focus should be on the US GDP data for the second quarter on Thursday and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index on Friday. Business activity indices will be considered a source of short-term stimulus.
From a technical standpoint, the overnight rebound from the breakout point of $2390, which now coincides with the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, requires caution for the bears.
This area serves as a key support point; if it is decisively broken, it will open the way for deeper losses. In that case, gold will fall to the 50-day SMA in the $2360-2350 zone before dropping to the round level of $2300, with some obstacles along the way.
Conversely, any upward movement will encounter some resistance in the $2415-2417 area, above which a short-covering could push the price almost to the round level of $2400 and into the $2437-2438 zone. Subsequent buying would suggest that the recent decline observed last week has exhausted itself, shifting the short-term bias in favor of the bulls. Momentum could then return to retesting the all-time high reached on July 17, with some intermediate resistance.
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