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The price test of 1.1048 occurred when the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro – especially after weak U.S. manufacturing activity data. However, after rising 15 pips, pressure on the euro returned. Yesterday's speech by European Central Bank board member Joachim Nagel was dovish, as he spoke extensively about future interest rate cuts in the Eurozone, to which the euro responded with a definite decline. Today, we expect a series of reports related to the PMI indices for the services sectors of Germany, France, Italy, and the entire Eurozone, as well as the composite PMI indices of these countries. The data are expected to be better than economists' forecasts, which could prompt buying of the euro. We should also pay attention to the Eurozone Producer Price Index and the speech of ECB executive board member Frank Elderson. For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Scenario No 1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1065, plotted by the green line on the chart, with the goal of rising to 1.1095. At 1.1095, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expecting the euro to rise today in the first half of the day will only be feasible with good PMI data. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.
Scenario No 2: I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1050 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1065 and 1.1095.
Scenario No 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.1050, plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.1025, where I will exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will return today if there is a failed attempt at correction in the first half of the day. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No 2: I am also going to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.1065 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1050 and 1.1025.
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
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