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The price test at 1.3168 occurred when the MACD indicator moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. The second test of this level occurred shortly afterward when the MACD was in the oversold zone, confirming an optimal entry point for the pound, which led to a rise of only 10 points. In the second half of the day, we await the following reports: the unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, and average hourly earnings in the U.S. A strong labor market means a strong U.S. dollar, which would lead to a decline in GBP/USD. Otherwise, it is best to continue selling the dollar and speculating on the strengthening of risk assets, including the British pound. The speeches of FOMC members John Williams and Christopher Waller should not be ignored either. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on Scenario 1 without paying attention to the MACD indicator, as I expect strong volatility spikes.
Scenario 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the entry point around 1.3183 (green line on the chart) is reached, aiming for a rise to the 1.3216 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3216, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). The pound's growth today can be expected after weak U.S. data.Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3162 price level when the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise to the target levels of 1.3183 and 1.3216 can be expected.
Scenario 1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking the 1.3162 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3131 level, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers are likely to dominate if strong U.S. data is released.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3183 price level when the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the target levels of 1.3162 and 1.3131 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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