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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The first test of the 144.52 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had been in the overbought zone for quite some time and had moved significantly above the zero level, thus limiting the upward potential of the dollar. The second test of this price shortly afterward took place as the MACD moved back from the overbought zone, confirming the correct entry point for selling according to Scenario #2. Consequently, the dollar declined by over 80 points. U.S. statistics, which will be released in the second half of the day, could further harm USD/JPY. If the Consumer Confidence Index and the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the 20 largest cities fall below economists' forecasts, the pair's decline could resume with renewed vigor. A hawkish stance from FOMC member Michelle Bowman on interest rates could be the only factor that revives demand for the U.S. dollar, although this appears unlikely. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 144.18 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 144.77 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 144.77, I will close my long positions and initiate short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point movement in the opposite direction from this level. A rise in the pair today is expected only if U.S. data is strong. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and just beginning its upward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the 143.80 price level is tested twice consecutively, with the MACD indicator in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. An increase is expected to reach the resistance levels of 144.18 and 144.77.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a breakdown of the 143.80 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 143.24 level, where I will close my short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25 point movement in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair will return if buyers fail to act around the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting its decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the 144.18 price level is tested twice consecutively, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline is expected to reach the support levels of 143.80 and 143.24.
Chart Overview:
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always implement stop-loss orders to manage risk. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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